NFL WEEK 1
The NFL season is finally here! Kansas City takes on New England Thursday September 7th to start things off and then there is a full slate of games over the weekend. The most heavily bet American sport presents many opportunities for us and I’m going to take a look at a few potential plays for week 1. Obviously, this is written on Tuesday (9/5) so always keep an eye on the changing lines and percentages.
The main strategy I want to implement is fading the public. Books will want to take advantage of the public immediately and hopefully by being sharp we can find a few winners by fading the public in a few heavily public-bet games.
KANSAS CITY @ NEW ENGLAND
The season opener is also the only game on Thursday night and New England will be a huge public play. Books will want to start their season on a winning note and will be shading this line heavily in order to catch the public bettors. Taking a look at ZCode’s Line Reversals Tool we can get an early breakdown:
As you can see, the early action is incredibly one-sided on the Patriots. Given the volume of bets that will ultimately be on New England, this line might even drift out a little more. Already, you can catch Kansas City +9.5 at 5Dimes but I don’t think it will get to 10 as sharp money has been steadily hitting KC at these big numbers. I think we can jump on board with KC +9.5.
CAROLINA @ SAN FRANCISCO
The second team I want to look at is the 49ers. As you can see, Carolina is getting the lion’s share of wagers and, while the overall numbers are smaller, the percentages should stay relatively similar as the overall wagers increase.
Let’s take San Francisco +6.
PITTSBURGH @ CLEVELAND
The last team I’m interested in is Cleveland. Like San Francisco, the Browns are an underdog at home and public bettors are hammering the Steelers.
5Dimes is currently offering Cleveland +10 and I think we can jump on that.
Once again, we have a few days until these games take place with lots of wagering in between so keeping an eye on the lines and percentages throughout the week is important. Fading the public is very successful when the public side is 80%+ so keep that in mind as the week progresses and the betting volume grows.
Like all sports investing, this strategy is most effective over the course of an entire season. Use consistent money management and stick to the plan in order to maximize profit. As always, using ZCode’s Line Reversals Tool is a great way to stay on top of all the action. You can find the tool HERE
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