NFL Playoffs Picks, AFC Championship: Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots
It’s hard to imagine anyone taking down the New England Patriots at home. The Pats have been great at home, and Tom Brady’s numbers on his own field have been spectacular this season. The Indianapolis Colts defense is sloppy, and it’s hard to see them shutting down the Pats. Then again, it was hard to imagine them shutting down the Denver Broncos, and they found a way to do that.
I believe Peyton Manning was pretty incapacitated by his injury but tried to play through it. I think that’s the only reason the Colts are still alive, and I don’t expect a similar result here. I like the Pats to cover and my big play, as outlined below, is going to be a teaser with the Pats and Seahawks, even with sharp money coming in on the other side of both plays.
The computer sees a 70% chance of victory for the New England Patriots at home, but is less friendly on the spread. Still, I don’t see the Colts staying in this one and I’ll be on both plays. Mostly, though, I’m on a teaser with the two top seeds.
Patriots 30 – Colts 21
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