NFL Picks Week Three: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons, Thursday Night Football
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, two years in a row now, appear to be that team that everyone was wrong about. Unfortunately, it’s the bad way. Once again, despite what seemed to be legitimate improvements, the Buccaneers are off to a really slow start. In this division, that simply won’t do.
The Atlanta Falcons, on the other hand, appear poised for a strange season. After battling back against the Saints, who I think are the better team despite their loss to the Browns, the Falcons didn’t put up much of a fight in Cincy. Which Falcons team shows up here should be the difference in this one for me.
I think the Falcons have enough to keep the Buccaneers from making a game out of this. First of all, the game plan that goes into shutting down all the weapons of the Falcons takes more than three days to put together. The Bucs, limited to a lifetime backup qb and an injured running back platoon, conversely, do not take that kind of preparation. The short week always tends to favor the home team, money line, at home. I think that bodes extra well for Atlanta and all their weapons, despite the familiarity that these divisional rivals share.
I also simply think the Falcons are the better team. The issue is the full touchdown that the Falcons need to win by. I think the Bucs could show some fight here.
The computer agrees. They have a full five-star money line signal on the home team, and a 61% chance of victory on Thursday night. The issue is the conflict in the signal. 61% odds at this line does not indicate five stars of value to me, so the parameters appear in conflict. Moreover, there is only a 6% chance they cover according to the computer.
Still, the Falcons are the better team. The algorithm suggests tempering our expectations, and I will. I’ll go small here, teasing this down to a money line wager with some of the games from Sunday while putting a wager out on -6 as well. I expect the Falcons to control the game, but just in case they don’t, I’ll follow some of the computer’s advice and go a little smaller here. We all saw what happened when I picked the Saints over the Browns against the wishes of Z-Code. I’ll pull it back here again, just in case.
Falcons 31 – Bucs 20
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