NFL Picks and Predictions Week Five: Denver Broncos at Dallas Cowboys
This game has looked screwy from the start. A seven-point spread doesn’t seem appropriate here, given how poorly the Cowboys have played this year and given Peyton Manning’s world-obliterating performance so far this year.
Public money agrees with us. Walking right into Vegas’ little trap, Z-Code money trackers show approximately 70% of the money coming in on the Broncos. Personally, I think this spread should be double digits. As such, I find value, just like everyone else, on the Broncos.
Z-Code likes the Broncos in a moneyline wager here. They think the Broncos will win this game straight up even on the road. However, when we look at the line movement and see that this game has jumped to -7.5, Z-Code is actually on the cowboys against the spread. At +7.5, Z-code gives the Cowboys a 62% chance of stealing this one and covering.
So, if you’re with me, tease this thing. I like MNF -3 with the Falcons.
If you’re with the computer, take the Cowboys 7.5
And if you want some adventure like me, you’ll take the teaser and buy this down to -6.5 with the Broncos.
31-24, Broncos
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