The midpoint of the 2025 NFL regular season is here, and there are numerous key matchups to kick it off. I will examine four of the games with the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs battling in the headlined matchup.
Minnesota Vikings versus Detroit Lions
In this NFC North battle, the Lions come in with a 5-2 record, while the Vikings are last with a record of 3-4 after losing three of the last four. Detroit is a 8.5-point home favorite with odds of 1.200 to 4.750 with an over/under of 47.5. The Lions are a 4.5-star game winner pick and 84 percent chance of winning. Detroit is “burning hot” versus “ice cold down” on the Team Strength Oscillator and +23 to +10 on the Power Ranks Indicator. Detroit is also the more stable team, coming in at +4 to +1 on the Team Volatility Oscillator. The Vikings are a solid 2-2 on the road, but the Lions are undefeated at home this year at 3-0. Detroit also has a scoring differential advantage of +64 to -7. I like Detroit to win and cover, but pass on the over/under bet.
Atlanta Falcons versus New England Patriots
After a 3-2 start, the Falcons have dropped their last two, while the Patriots have won 5-straight and sit on top of the AFC East. The Patriots are a 5.5-home favorite with odds of 1.385 to 3.100 with an “over/under” of 44.5. The teams are trending in games “under” the line, which is a 5-star pick at 85 percent. New England is “burning hot” versus “average down” and +30 to +12 on the Power Ranks Indicator. The Falcons are 1-2 on the road, and interestingly, the Patriots are only 2-2 at home and 4-0 on the road. The Patriots have a large scoring differential margin of +67 to -34. I don’t see this being much of a contest, going with the hot hand and take the Patriots to win and cover in a game “under” the line.
Indianapolis Colts versus Pittsburgh Steelers
The Colts enter the game with the best record in the NFL at 7-1, while the Steelers are first in the AFC North with a 4-3 record. Indianapolis is a 3.5-point road favorite with odds of 1.588 to 2.450 with an over/under of 50.5. The teams have been trending in games “over” the line, but the “under” is a 5-star pick at 89 percent. Indianapolis is “burning hot” versus “average down” on the Team Strength Oscillator and +31 to +18 on the Power Ranks Indicator. The Colts have a significant scoring differential edge over the Steelers, at +116 to 0. In addition, the Colts are 5-0 over their last five as favorites. I like the Colts to win and cover in a game “under” the line.
Kansas City Chiefs versus Buffalo Bills
Two AFC titans battle in Buffalo. The Chiefs are 5-3 and “burning hot” after winning the last three, while the Bills are 5-2 and “average up” after going 1-2 over the last three. Kansas City is a 1.5-point road favorite with odds of 1.769 to 2.100 with an over/under of 52.5. The “under” is a 5-star pick at 96 percent, and the score prediction is 25-24 in favor of the Bills at 63 percent confidence. The Chiefs have a narrow edge of +22 to +21 on the Power Ranks Indicator and +83 to +61 in scoring differential. Neither team has been particularly consistent regarding their favorite/underdog status. The Chiefs defeated the Bills by a 32-29 score last year in the playoffs. I like Buffalo to rebound and win this game by a field goal in a game “under” the line.
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