1. Atlanta Falcons (10-6): The offense is really exciting. There is a good young rotation of running backs, the wide receivers are exciting, Matt Ryan is reliable, and the connection between Ryan and Jones is among the best in the league. That said, there will be growing pains here with the new coaching staff and the defense is pretty abysmal every year. I think they’ll win the division and be competitive, but I think there’s a ceiling on how competitive they can really be.

2. New Orleans Saints (8-8): I hate the moves the Saints made this offseason. The offense will miss Jimmy Graham but what I hate is the hypocrisy in the logic behind dumping him. They give him a big deal, trade him for a lineman to protect Drew Brees and dump cap, but then weakened the rest of the line and cut Junior Galette and ate dead cap space in the process. The defense is only mediocre because Rob Ryan is so good, and they might be the least talented group in football. Still, they do have Drew Brees, so maybe they can finish second in a horrible division.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9): I’m not ready to believe in Jameis Winston, but Mike Evans has some serious potential and gives Winston a nice option on the outside. I don’t think they can run the ball, but maybe one of their running backs will emerge from the pack this season. The defense is decent enough for them to be much more competitive this year.

4. Carolina Panthers (6-10): Their best wide receiver is out for the year, the running game is no longer as stable, and Cam Newton can’t be trusted. A decent defense won’t save this group.