NBA Playoffs Picks: Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers
It’s a tough week here for me… We’ve hit all our baseball posts, but I’ve only bet four games. We’ve been off both hockey series because the teams I want to see win don’t look sharp. We’ve been off the Spurs Thunder series because I don’t see enough of an edge either way. That leaves us hammering the Heat every other night, but so far it’s worked out wonderfully.
With house money, my suggestion is to bet on Miami again, for the same reasons laid out in our previous posts. They’ve been hitting on the money line, covering the spread, and destroying the books. I look to Game Five for some serious desperation from the Pacers, but I don’t know that it will matter.
The computer is conflicted. They see four-star value on the Heat to win, a 65% chance to win money line, but only 25% to cover the spread. Obviously these parameters are in conflict and the algorithm is producing contradictory outputs. Typically we avoid games like this.
Here, I feel confident that a small wager is appropriate. Miami is simply the better team and it’s only a matter of time now.
Heat 94 – Pacers 90
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