NBA Picks January 4: Cavaliers host Pistons in featured game

The NBA regular season is nearly halfway in the books as we reach the first week of 2026. There are eight games scheduled for January 4. I will analyze four of the matchups and make picks with the Detroit Pistons visiting the Cleveland Cavaliers in the headlined matchup.

Detroit Pistons versus Cleveland Cavaliers

The Pistons head into play with the best record in the Eastern Conference, while the Cavaliers are 8th. Cleveland is “burning hot” versus “average up” on the Team Strength Oscillator, and Detroit is +26 to +18 on the Power Ranks Indicator. The teams are trending in games on opposite sides of the “over/under” line, and the Pistons have a +6.1 to +2.5 scoring differential edge. The Cavaliers are 12-8 at home, and the Pistons are 12-6 on the road. The Pistons have been the more consistent team with regards to their favorite/underdog status.  Cleveland won the last two games between the teams and seems to have the Pistons’ number. I like Cleveland at home, but pass on the “over/under” bet.

Indiana Pacers versus Orlando Magic

In another Eastern Conference battle, the Pacers are last in the conference, and the Magic are 6th. The Magic is “average” versus “dead” on the Team Strength Oscillator and +17 to 0 on the Power Ranks Indicator. The Magic has a large edge in scoring differential at +1.7 to -9.0 while Indiana is the far more stable team at +17 to +2 on the Team Volatility Oscillator. Indiana has been involved in games “under” the line in three of the last six, and Orlando has been involved in five of the last six.  Indiana is a mere 1-15 on the road this season.  I like the Magic in a game that screams “under” the line.

Oklahoma City Thunder versus Phoenix Suns

The Thunder has the best record in the NBA and “burning hot” after ending a two-game skid with three consecutive wins. The Suns are 7th in the Western Conference and “average”, going 4-2 over the last six.  Oklahoma City has the best scoring differential in the league at +14.6 and a 12-3 record on the road. Phoenix is a solid 10-5 at home and +1.5 scoring differential. The Thunder won the first two games between the teams this season, both at home. They are also the most stable team in the NBA, according to the Team Volatility Oscillator. I like the Thunder to roll by double digits, despite playing on the road, in a game “over” the line.

Memphis Grizzlies versus Los Angeles Lakers

Both teams are in the middle of the Western Conference playoff picture, with the Grizzlies 9th and the Lakers 5th.  The teams have identical records of 2-4 over the last six and “ice cold down” on the Team Strength Oscillator. The teams have been involved in games “over” the line in seven of the last 12. Although the Lakers have a six-game lead over the Grizzlies in the standings, they are nearly even in scoring differential at -0.4 to -0.6. Los Angeles is only two games over .500 at home, while Memphis is 8-9 on the road. I like the Lakers at home in a game decided by five points or less, but pass on the “over/under” bet.

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