NFL Picks and Predictions Week Five: Monday Night Football – New York Jets at Atlanta Falcons
Z-Code is all over the dirty birds at home tonight, even with the ten point spread. There’s only a moderate amount of conflict in the line, which is rare when spreads get this out of control. In a battle between two mediocre teams (so far, at least), we side with the team we still have significantly higher expectations for.
I don’t think the Jets are very good. I know they’ve played well enough to win tight games against decent opponents, but I don’t know how. Geno is still a liability, and the ball-hawking Falcons secondary should have some fun tonight. I don’t see New York moving the ball.
The flip side, and what may keep the Jets in the game, is that the Falcons wide receiving tandem of Roddy White and Julio Jones isn’t fully healthy. It allows for matchups in the secondary that keep these weapons bottled up. Further, the Falcons running game is still reeling from the loss of Steven Jackson, who will not play again tonight.
My play, as I laid out yesterday, is a teaser in this game. I’m buying it down to -3. I don’t necessarily feel comfortable with the full 10 points.
Z-Code does, however, feel very comfortable with the points. We have a Baromir Parlay play (Trey’s glorious NFL system) on the ML, with 81% likelihood of hitting. We have 61% odds on the ten points coming through outright. Lastly, we have 3.5 stars on the Falcons, with only moderate underdog value on the Jets. Z-Code is all over Atlanta here.
I can see a blowout, so I support that pick. I’m on the teaser, but maybe Atlanta just runs away with this one. After several tight wins yesterday, I could use a little breather.
Falcons 31 – Jets 13
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