WILD CARD PLAY-IN GAMES, MLB PLAYOFFS – MLB FEATURED GAME OF THE DAY 10/5: St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves
The American League would have had a play-in game anyway, but in the National League the new Wild Card system is in full effect. The St. Louis Cardinals would have missed a playoff birth by a significant margin, finishing fifth. Because of the new playoff system, they get a chance. After winning the World Series from the Wild Card spot last year, they’re a dan
This is an epic playoff pitching matchup. Quite frankly, this is what playoff baseball is all about. Cold bats deaden and pitching tends to carry teams through the playoffs. Kris Medlen had one of the best seasons of any pitcher this year, though shortened by innings limits. His debut as a starter led to one of the most phenomenal runs in baseball history. He is 8-0 in his last 10 starts, with an ERA under one. On the season, he is 10-1 with an ERA of 1.57. Considering he hasn’t lost as a starter this year, the Braves have to feel good going into a one-game series with Medlen on the mound.
On the other side is KYle Lohse, #8 in the Z Code top 100 pitchers this year. He put together another impressive season, with just three losses against sixteen wins. An ERA under three and playoff experience means this game could easily go under.
Z Code predicts the under of 6.5 will hit with 62% probability. THe weather is a key to playoff baseball. A 5 PM start in Atlanta will be under sunny skies and around 80 degrees – don’t expect autumn to cool off these bats. Still, with the pitching matchup on tap, runs will be at a premium. Both teams have finished under line totals in their last three games. The pitching duels with the Reds last series for the Cardinals is likely indicative of what to expect from the Cardinals lineup, while the Braves bats went cold against the lowly Pirates. Expect a great pitchers duel, with medium confidence due to the extremely low total.
As for the game, Z Code has conflicting parameters on moneyline wagers. Public money is fairly evenly split, placing little value on line reversals as gametime approaches. Sharp line reversals exist on the spread, and Z Code likes a close game. Value lies on the Cardinals +1.5 with a 73% chance of a close game.
In the end, Z Code finds some value on the Cardinals and anticipates a close game that can be decided by one run. Still, it’s impossible to go against Kris Medlen right now. Though the young pitcher might react with volatility under the extreme pressure of this game, I do not want to be on the other side of a Kris Medlen line right now. Value may be on the Cardinals, but it’s dangerous to bet against the hottest pitcher in baseball. Z Code recommends the spread bet and under, but I like the under and Atlanta moneyline. They’re the better team, they have an unbelievably hot pitcher, but they haven’t been there before like the Cardinals.
Momentum and experience favors the Cardinals, but Medlen is hard to bet against. It might be best to stay away from the lure of this one game playoff. Z Code is on the +1.5, I’m on Atlanta ML and we both like the under!
Confidence: 1/5 Value: 1/5 —> Stay away, or a low confidence, fun bet because of the intensity of the game.
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