The final month of the MLB regular season has arrived, and games take on increased importance. The push towards the playoffs is now, and several important games scheduled for September 1 could impact the standings. I will examine four games, with the Brewers hosting the Phillies in the featured game.
Philadelphia Phillies versus Milwaukee Brewers
Although both teams are among the best in baseball, neither team is playing particularly well at the moment. The Phillies are 3-3 over the last six and “average”, while Milwaukee is 2-4 and “ice cold down” during the same stretch. The teams are trending in games “over” the line and have outscored their opponents by a combined 258 runs. Philadelphia is +19 to +8 on the Power Ranks Indicator, but Milwaukee is a dominant 45-24 at home compared to a game under .500 for the Phillies on the road. The Brewers outscored the Phillies, 28-11, in a three-game sweep in Philadelphia at the end of June. Playing at home will yield similar results. Go with the Brewers in a game “over” the line.
Cleveland Guardians versus Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox are “burning hot” after going 7-3 over the last ten to position themselves just 3.5 games out in the AL East. The Guardians are “average up” after winning their last two after four previous losses and are at .500 for the season. The teams are trending in games “under” the line, but there is a huge scoring differential edge for the Red Sox of +108 to -85. In addition, Cleveland is a game under .500 on the road, while Boston is 41-25 at home. Both teams are moderately stable at +11 and +10 on the Team Volatility Oscillator. Boston won two of three against Cleveland earlier this season, outscoring them 24-11. I like Boston to continue their dominance over Cleveland, but pass on the “over/under” bet.
New York Mets versus Detroit Tigers
Despite losing their last four and “ice cold down” status on the Team Strength Oscillator, the Tigers have a comfortable lead in the AL Central. The Mets are 4-2 over the last six, “average” and five games back in the NL East. New York is +18 to +5 on the Power Ranks Indicator, while Detroit has a scoring differential edge of +85 to +61. The teams are trending in games “over” the line with a score prediction of 8-5 in favor of the Mets, but with less than 50 percent confidence. Detroit is 44-25 at home, while New York has struggled to a 28-37 record on the road. The Tigers won two of three against the Mets last season, and a similar outcome is expected this time. Go with the Tigers in a game “over” the line.
Seattle Mariners versus Tampa Bay Rays
The Mariners are right on the heels of the Astros for first in the AL West, while the Rays are a distant 13.5 games out in the AL East. Seattle is “average up” versus “average down” on the Team Strength Oscillator and +20 to +1 on the Power Ranks Indicator. The teams are trending in games “over” the line with a score prediction total of 13 runs with 46 percent confidence. Despite a far worse record, the Rays have a scoring differential edge of +38 to +25. The Mariners swept the Rays at home in a three-game series early in August. The Rays are a game over .500 at home and the Mariners are 31-35 on the road. I like the Rays to edge the Mariners by a run in a game “under” the line.
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