MLB Picks System: Mark’s ABC, AB Doubler, Flat Betting Hybrid
So today I get to feature my own system because, quite honestly, the only sport I follow is on a break.. but I think this is good opportunity to offer insights into the second half of the season, and key on what makes the Z-Code system so worthwhile. Last season we finished up almost 40 units, and this year we’ve peaked at around 20 units with about a half unit average bet size, finishing up 500 dollars the last two days of the season’s first half.
My system is simple and straightforward, and 100% transparent. It’s a filtration of key parameters I’ve developed over the year, and I’ve never had a losing season. My system was featured in our latest podcast, so if you have any questions check out our podcast for a bit more information.
The five parameters I use are:
1. Pitching advantage – of the two starters, who do I rank as better and by how much?
2. Roster advantage – pitching aside, who is the better team? Who is home and how do they play there… on the road?
3. Momentum – are they playing good baseball?
4. Z-Code output – what does the computer say and how strongly does it feel about this game?
5. Value in the line – We can chase lines that offer value when they’ll pay out over the long term.
Key principles:
1. Long-term approach. Every system has its ups and downs, but over the long haul i have never had a losing season in hockey or baseball.
2. ABC: A three-bet chase through a series. Only used when I feel one team will likely win all three games. Risky because bet sizes can get very large.
3. AB Doubler: A similar chase, but only two games. Used when I see an edge but don’t involve myself in a full three-game series.
4. Flat betting: One shot, no statistical edge, but I see a play worth betting.
5. Sweep resistance: Home teams fight hard and it’s difficult to beat a team three times in a row. Pride and regularity between opponents shapes this parameter.
6. money management: All bets are placed based on unit sizes. Don’t bet what you can’t afford to lose, and only bet a percentage of your bankroll. Again, long-term approach is key.
In the end, these parameters fold together and when they do not suggest a bet, I avoid. Basically, I try to talk myself out of every play I might make, and where I can’t, I bet.
Hopefully this helps. If not, I advise you check out our podcast for a different analysis of our system.
Cheers,
Mark
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