MLB Picks and Predictions, Friday 8/23: Washington Nationals at Kansas City Royals
This is a tricky game. I don’t think I’ve seen such a strong underdog prediction in some time, but beware the conflicting parameters of the algorithm here.
While Z-Code suggests that there is an 83% chance of a Nationals win, it also says there is only a 68% chance of the Nationals covering a +1.5 spread. There’s five star support, but obviously those numbers do not add up. The system is conflicted, and the read out is not nearly as strong as the first glance suggests.
I see a big pitching edge for the Nationals, but I also get nervous any time the computer gets confused. Washington may be the better team, and the home team is struggling, but this is a risky place to get aggressive. Chen has been extremely profitable this year and is formidable, for whatever reason, this season.
The Nats are a tough team to bet on right now. They’ve really struggled and look like they’re going to miss the playoffs. This almost qualifies as a pair of bad teams facing off (which lends to volatility in my system that I avoid), and the Royals have been sneakily putting together respectable numbers.
I like the Nationals, but nothing aggressive. I’ll trust the computer, but not with any large amount of money since the system is so conflicted.
Washington 4 – Royals 3
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