BREAK ONE LAST TIME SYSTEM
Any surface across WTA/ATP and ITFs.
– Players are in the deciding set
– Player A is up either 5-2 or 5-3 and her or his opponent are serving to stay in the set.
– Odds are at least 1.8
Simply place a flat bet on Player A to break one last time to win the match. This works remarkably with 86% of matches tracked where I picked out a player who was struggling and bet against them.
Your explained the system well. Just to be sure, I would like to know if you apply this system only on those matches you’re watching (you said "one player is struggling on court, the other strives") or on every match on the livescore showing a 5-2 or 5-3 with the opponent serving. I backtested it on the last seven days WTA and ATP matches and the winrate was a little over 50%, which is good considering that the odds for the leading player to break is usually way over 2.5.
Right so the system is in its infancy stages, this is something we need to research further. I would completely skip matches where you have a score of 6-4 / 5-3, that break of serve to win the match is very unlikely.
I also noticed that when a tight first set happens and a loose second set, the break towards the end in the second set is very likely. Presume player 1 won first set 7-6, second set she’s already up 5-1 or 5-2, the break will happen very likely. Take Sharapova for example last night.
I’ll draw up a plan for this once we backtest this system further. I think we can apply filters to increase the win rate.
Let’s backtest it further and I will get back to you with stellar rules.
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