Mark has prepared an article how his approach to betting changed over the years. He shares his vision on ABC progressions on MLB. You can read interview with Mark here
I’ve said it before, but I never thought progressions were of any value to me. They seemed to be a scam; A way of manipulating statistics to produce a high win rate and tricking the public. I always did flat bets only, but I’m learning the long-term value of the innovative and consistent ABC approach to baseball.
I still rely on flat betting, but I’ve incorporated mini-doublers and ABC progressions into my system with excellent results. I’m still learning, but I have some thoughts on where people go wrong.
Our only loss this season was on the Giants on the road. We went WAY too aggressive on that series, early in the year, and ended up losing 10 units on a coin-flip line by mistakenly riding out a C bet.
I don’t like heavy favorites and I don’t feel comfortable laying out huge amounts of money on one series that opens -250. I do, however, see the point experts like Trey make on finding consistency. We lost our only progression on a medium confidence play on the road where a streaky, thin, inconsistent lineup went cold against a team notorious for home winning streaks because I “saw value”.
I look back on that series now and say “wow, what was I thinking”.
For me, I look around the community and often see too many progressions on the road. I’m guilty of it myself, but I’ve pulled back my units every time I’m betting road teams. It’s become a crucial parameter in my system.
I’ve also learned teams like the Padres, Brewers, and Athletics seem to pull magical upset sweeps out of nowhere when home. The Brewers just took out the Phillies’ best three pitchers, but when you look at my new parameters that series screamed no bet. Phillies lineup cannot be trusted, Brewers are streaky at home, and it just wasn’t worth it.
I strongly urge a more conservative approach. It sometimes seems like progressions are invincible, but one bad loss can cripple a bankroll. It’s taken me a full two months to recover from one ill-fated, overly-aggressive bet on the Giants. Learn from this.
Look for reasons not to bet on a series. Look for reasons to avoid a progression. Try to make a decision for “no bet”. Look for volatility and AVOID it at all costs. When all parameters, all trusted experts, all z-code filters, and all hesitations seem to align, that’s when you attack… It’s okay to be aggressive, but overbetting is the single biggest flaw of a novice bankroll.
Cheers,
Mark
P.S. Upgrade to Zcode VIP Club and Unlock All Winning Picks. Instant Access.
