MLB Picks: Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals
The line here absolutely looks like a trap. Doug Fister is off to a slow start. The Nats aren’t hitting right now. But are we seriously to believe that in an ABC progression at home, starting at 1.8 odds, the Washington Nationals won’t turn a profit against the lowly Cincinnati Reds? I’m all over this one.
The Washington Nationals have been a pretty reliable feature in our ABC betting systems this season. When we pick our spots, the consistency of the Nats throughout the lineup combines with one of the best rotations in baseball to give a tremendous amount of stability and predictability to our progression plays. If you’re going to chase, it’s nice to have stud pitching up and down the rotation.
As such, I really like their chances here. The Cincinnati Reds are a weak team with a mediocre lineup, no identity, and an inconsistent pitching staff. I think the aces of the Nats line up here to take control of this series. What’s more, I think Fister, despite his struggles, is underrated. This guy might be the number five in this rotation, but he’d be an ace on a handful of other staffs and certainly in the top three of most rotations.
So, we press forward here. With 65% chance of victory and 1.8 odds, there is nearly a 2:1 chance for winning this one outright and there’s a ton of value here. The algorithm is in alignment and this is a very pretty play that fits the system. I’m pressing this ABC progression.
Nats 4 – Reds 3
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