MLB Picks July 27: Rangers host Mariners in battle for AL West lead

With a little over two months remaining in the MLB season, division and league races are beginning to heat up. Most teams are still in playoff contention, so each series takes on increased importance. There is a full schedule of games for July 27. I will make picks for four of them, with the Rangers at the Mariners in the featured game.

Seattle Mariners versus Texas Rangers

The top two teams in the AL West battle. Texas is “average” versus “average down” on the Team Strength Oscillator and +17 to +13 on the Power Ranks Indicator. Both teams are trending in games “over” the line, and despite trailing in the standings, the Mariners have a scoring differential edge of +16 to -29. George Kirby is scheduled to pitch for the Mariners versus Kumar Rocker for the Rangers. Kirby is 8-8 with a 3.57 ERA and -$263 on the Pitcher Profit Oscillator. Rocker is 3-8 with a 4.13 ERA and -$398. Texas has won five of the seven games between the teams this season. They are only two games over .500 at home, while Seattle is 21-30 on the road. I like the Mariners in a road upset in a game “over” the line.

Philadelphia Phillies versus Miami Marlins

In this NL East matchup, both teams are struggling lately. The Phillies are “ice cold down” after losing four of the last five, while the Marlins have plummeted, “dead” on the Team Strength Oscillator after losing 10 in a row. The teams are trending in games “under” the line with a total predicted of six runs for this game. Miami is +9 to -16 in scoring differential, while the Phillies are +18 to +8 on the Power Ranks Indicator.  The Phillies have been one of the most stable teams in the league, coming in at +28 on the Team Volatility Oscillator. Philadelphia has owned Miami this season, winning six of the previous seven games between them. The Marlins are 31-21 at home, but the Phillies have an excellent road record of 29-22. I like the Phillies in a game “under” the line.

Cleveland Guardians versus Cincinnati Reds

Two Ohio teams square off in this battle as AL Central meets NL Central. Cleveland is “ice cold down” after going 2-4 over the last six, while Cincinnati is “burning hot” after winning four of the last five. The teams have been involved in games “over” the line in nine of the last 12 combined, while both teams are negative in scoring differential. Slade Cecconi is scheduled to pitch for the Guardians versus Chase Burns for the Reds. Cecconi is 4-7 with an ERA of 4.60, while Burns is 12-1 with a 2.42 ERA.  Cleveland won two of three earlier this season between the teams. The Reds are more consistently playing in tune with their favorite/underdog status.  There is a huge pitching matchup edge for the Reds. I like them to win this one in a game “under” the line.

Chicago Cubs versus St. Louis Cardinals

In another NL Central clash, the 2nd-place Cubs visit the 4th-place Cardinals. Chicago is “average up” versus “dead” on the Team Strength Oscillator, and +23 to +9 on the Power Ranks Indicator. The teams are trending on opposite sides of the “over/under” line over the last 12 games, and the Cubs have a +66 to -6 scoring differential edge. The Cubs have won four of the first six games between the teams this season. The Cubs have a better road record (28-23) than the Cardinals have at home (26-28), nullifying home-field advantage. Neither team has been particularly stable, at +3 and 0 on the Team Volatility Oscillator. I like the Cubs on the road, but pass on the “over/under” bet.

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