The NBA play-in round is complete, and first-round playoff action officially begins. There are four games scheduled for April 19, all 1 versus 8 and 2 versus 7 matchups in each conference. I will examine and make picks for each of these games
Philadelphia 76ers versus Boston Celtics
The 76ers enter as the 7th seed, but face a big uphill battle without Joel Embiid. While both teams are “burning hot” on the Team Strength Oscillator, Boston is a huge favorite with odds of 1.152 to 6.570 and a 12.5-point favorite. The Celtics are a 5-star game winner pick with 95 percent chance of winning. The over/under is 213.5 with a score predicted total of 234 points. Boston is +27 to +19 on the Power Ranks Indicator. Five-star game winners in “burning hot” status are 24-6 over the last 30 games. The teams split the season series 2 games apiece. There is very little to suggest that the 76ers can pull off the upset, but I see them catching Boston a little on its heels. Take Boston to win, Philadelphia to cover in a game “over” the line.
Portland Trail Blazers versus San Antonio Spurs
Portland enters “burning hot” after winning the last three, while San Antonio is “average”, going 4-2 over the last six. The Spurs are a 10.5-point favorite with odds of 1.207 to 5.210 with an over/under of 222.5. The Spurs have an 89 percent chance of winning and a 5-star game winner pick. The teams have been involved in games “over” the line in 6 of the last 12 combined. Betting the over is only a 2-star pick. San Antonio is +24 to +16 on the Power Ranks Indicator. They have a significant advantage at home after posting a 32-8 home record during the regular season, compared to Portland’s road record of 18-23. Both teams are very consistent with regard to their favorite/underdog status. As is the case with the other first-round matchups for this day, I like the home team to prevail rather easily. Go with the Spurs to win and cover, but pass on the “over/under” bet.
Phoenix Suns versus Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder finished with the best record in the NBA, while the Suns entered through the play-in round and were 47-35 during the regular season. Oklahoma City is a huge favorite with odds of 1.141 to 6.950 and a spread of 12.5 points. They have an 85 percent chance of winning with an over/under of 214.5. Both teams are “average” on the Team Strength Oscillator, and the Thunder is +26 to +14 on the Power Ranks Indicator. Oklahoma City was 34-7 at home during the regular season, while Phoenix was 20-21 on the road. In addition, the Thunder had the top scoring differential in the league at +11.1. The score predicted total is 227 with 55 percent confidence. The teams have been trending in games “over” the line. I like Oklahoma City at home to win in a blowout, covering in a game “over” the line.
Orlando Magic versus Detroit Pistons
Detroit finished the regular season with the best record in the Eastern Conference at 60-22. They enter the playoffs “burning hot” versus “average up” on the Team Strength Oscillator and +27 to +18 on the Power Ranks Indicator. Detroit is an 8.5-point favorite with odds of 1.308 to 3.905 with an over/under of 218.5. Betting the over is a 5-star pick, and the Pistons are a 5-star game winner pick. Orlando has been trending in games “under” the line, but despite that, the score predicted total of 244 easily covers the line. Detroit was 31-9 at home during the regular season, while Orlando was a game under .500 on the road. Detroit is one of the most stable teams in the NBA, according to the Team Volatility Oscillator. The teams split during the regular season, but this is a whole new ballgame in the playoffs. I like Detroit to win and cover in a game “over” the line.
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