NBA FEATURED BASKETBALL GAME – SATURDAY 11/03 – Boston Celtics at Washington Wizards – Is Celtic Pride enough to overcome age and ineptitude?
We went bold and crazy yesterday and it paid off in a big way. New York City is a magical place during disaster, and it showed against a lackadaisical Heat team in the Garden. We’re not feeling so brave today, resting on the profits of an incredibly profitable day of basketball. The Z-Code community was up big – personally, I was up 12 units on NBA.
I apologize for my absence lately, I’ve been battling the hurricane and a hospital visit. It was nice to be back in a big way yesterday, though. Let’s stay hot!
We’re not feeling nearly as crazy today, so I thought it would be fun to point out another game where Z-Code and I disagree. It’s a very low confidence Saturday. I have 12 wagers out counting college football, but nothing is bigger than 1 unit in size. After such a great Friday night, there’s no reason to push when there’s limited value or conflicting paramters. The mighty computer sees upset value in the Washington Wizards as they host the Boston Celtics. After a dismal performance (that we saw coming in the Z-Code VIP Club), I think the Celtics have too much pride to stay down.
The spread for this game is Boston Celtics (-6) and I am on it with low confidence. Z-Code sees value in the Wizards for the spread, expecting the underdogs to have value on home court. Given how the two teams have started, I completely understand the predictions for a tight game. That said, Z-Code also envisions a 75% probability that the Boston Celtics will win this game straight up. Any time there are conflicting parameters between the star value and moneyline outcome percentages, it’s a good sign to stay away. For me, it’s a great reason to limit bet size. One unit on the spread, and one unit in some moneyline parlays. Again, there is no reason to chase when there’s such limited value on high spreads today.
Both teams are on losing streaks, with the Celtics stumbling out of the gates quite dramatically. They looked old and washed up, and their offense appears limited. Losing Ray Allen will hurt this team. However, they have depth. A six-point spread scares me on the road in a back-to-back, but they’re the far superior team. The Wizards are battling injuries and the Boston Celtics are a proud basketball team driven by veteran leadership and star power. I think that’s enough to handle business against a battered Wizards team that wasn’t very good to begin with.
Celtics 94 – WIzards 83, low confidence parlay plays and spread bet on a day where discretion may be key!
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