MLB Picks: Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
Initially, we avoided this game because I didn’t like the way the pitching match ups shook up. I thought Atlanta was the much better team, but didn’t really see an edge in a progression-style wager in a series like this. These are divisional rivals, and the Braves lineup never amazes me. I think this is a dangerous series, and still a dangerous game, but I like the way this particular matchup shapes up after all the chaos of the first two games, and I expect this edge to carry through.
The Braves have a strong pitcher going. Harang is having a phenomenal year and is particularly good at home. His ERA in Atlanta is well below three on the year, and he’s pitching very well over his last three starts. I think he’s hot enough to shut down the Phillies.
The Braves also have a sweep resistance parameter going for them, which gives them a statistical edge. At home, teams tend to be stronger when they face a sweep. There is a desperation here that should overcome the mini slump they’re in. Further, the Braves fell to some strong pitchers early in the series… I don’t think they fall again.
There’s a decent signal for the Phillies from the computer, but I’m going rogue here. Braves ML is my play, with very limited confidence. This is NOT A STRONG PLAY, but it is a system play and I think they’ll win at home.
Braves 5 – Phillies 3
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