Super Bowl 50 Predictions, NFL Picks: Denver Broncos vs Carolina Panthers
Everything about Super Bowl 50 points to the Carolina Panthers winning this game on paper. If you’ve followed the Denver Broncos this season and throughout these playoffs, it is clear that Peyton Manning is on his last legs.
The offense is stumbling a little bit, the receivers are dropping Manning’s wobbly passes, and without the downfield passing game the Denver Broncos running game has had trouble establishing itself. This is an offense that quite simply gave the Patriots too many chances to win the AFC championship. They barely deserve to be here, but for that phenomenal Denver Broncos defense and pass rush.
Take this struggling offense and it’s ancient quarterback and put it against one of the toughest defenses in football, and it’s hard to see the Denver Broncos taking out the Carolina Panthers to win Super Bowl 50.
I ask only this in my view of the Carolina Panthers: Have the Carolina Panthers been winning these games and blowing away their opponents or are teams giving these games away?
The Arizona Cardinals played one of the sloppiest games I’ve ever seen and utterly imploded. The Carolina Panthers got ahead early and sat on a lead. The best return man in football fumbled, one of the best quarterbacks in football this season choked, and one of the best teams in football this season self-destructed. I do not view last week as a sign of Carolina Panthers dominance, but rather, I watched the Cardinals give the game away.
The Denver Broncos will not give this game away. Yes, Peyton Manning’s arm strength is a huge issue for me here against a top secondary, but I trust his decisions and think he will do fine. I think the Denver Broncos defense is better than Carolina’s, if only slightly, and I think Cam Newton will falter under the pressure just like Brady and others before him. To expect another blowout here seems unreasonable.
Still, that is exactly what the public is doing. The line opened at four and jumped to six as Las Vegas reacted to public money, but now with upwards of 75% of the public still on the Carolina Panthers, why on earth is the line falling back to -5.5? This is a Las Vegas trap in the biggest public money game of the year. You would think Las Vegas would want to bait the public back into a Denver Broncos wager, take the 10% juice, and keep the line balanced. Instead, they’re trying to get more people back on the Carolina Panthers. In the Super Bowl, this is a bigger factor than any expert analysis.
Next, Z-Code gives a five-star signal for the Broncos ML value and nearly 70% for the Denver Broncos to cover at +5.5. I think they will keep this game close. With Z-code and public money factors aligned in the biggest game of the year, I expect a battle. I’m on the Denver Broncos +6, I’ll buy it to +7, with a small bet on the Broncos to win Super Bowl 50 and a small bet on the under and in a teaser.
Broncos 20 – Panthers 17
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