NFL Picks: Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams
The St. Louis Rams are your ex-girlfriend. Six months ago everything looked great while you were writing up your preseason predictions and there was all the promise in the world for this great defense and their new quarterback. Then, you hit some rocky times, but Todd Gurley broke in as the top running back in football and everything was fine again. The sex was awesome and you were proud to have supported the St. Louis Rams during those tougher times. She even did that thing you like that you don’t really like to tell people you like because it’s kind of embarrassing, but really all guys who try it like it… you know the thing.
Suddenly, you looked up, and you were out of the playoff race and three games below .500. She cheated on you with your cousin and gave you Herpes. This is a dumpster fire.
Then you see another girl across the bar, the Arizona Cardinals. You always thought the Arizona Cardinals were a sexy pick. Heck, you liked them better than the St. Louis Rams all along. She’s eying you up. She’s made you a ton of money this season and she’s ready to give you some more. She’s going to win a tough game on the road for you. Hey there, Arizona Cardinals. Can I buy you a drink?
Right now, I think the Arizona Cardinals are my favorite to win the Super Bowl. Let me explain. The Arizona Cardinals have a great defense, blitz effectively, and force turnovers in high pressure situations. They can run the ball with two strong running back options, and Carson Palmer has been one of the best quarterbacks in football this year.
I hate the New England Patriots and they have too many injuries. The South is the NFC East of the AFC. I refuse to trust Andy Dalton in a Super Bowl game and the Denver Broncos are all defense. They’re beatable.
Given the Packers’ struggles, an inept NFC north, and my reluctance to buy into the Carolina Panthers, I have the Arizona Cardinals making it to the Super Bowl. Don’t forget how awesome they were last season before Carson Palmer went down. I really think the Arizona Cardinals have a chance this year. That’s how much I like them.
The St. Louis Rams, on the other hand, have been one of my biggest disappointments this year. I love Jeff Fisher, but he simply hasn’t been able to make it work with his quarterbacks this year. The defense is strong, but it hasn’t been good enough to win games. The Rams, simply put, are a let down.
As such, I see some serious value here despite the way Vegas is baiting us. The Arizona Cardinals fell from -250 on the ML to 200. The Cardinals also fell all the way to -4. Normally, in a 1:00 game, this type of movement through the week isn’t that important. That said, 75% of the spread and half the ML money is coming in on the Cardinals but it continues to fall. Vegas wins big if the Rams win, and still makes good money on a cover.
I think this will be a tight game between two divisional rivals, but I think Vegas is giving away some value by letting the spread fall this far. I’m on the Cardinals money line on the road in a huge game between two big rivals out west.
Cardinals 27 – Rams 17
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