NFL Picks: Thanksgiving Football – Cowboys Raiders, Lions Packers, Steelers Ravens
Happy Thanksgiving, y’all. It’s a great American tradition of turkey, family, and FOOTBALL. We’ve got three games, and as a holiday treat I’m going to give you guys all my plays AND the Z-Code prediction for each game.
My biggest play tomorrow is a three-team, seven-point teaser on all three games. The lines have moved sharply, and I like the Dallas Cowboys -1/2, the Detroit Lions PK, and the Baltimore Ravens +4.5 paying out +150. Should be fun.
Individually, I’m on all three home teams as well.
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions -7
I was all over this one when it was still at -6 yesterday. My advice is to buy the point. A teaser with the over looks good as well. The Detroit Lions have a decent pass rush and should keep pressure on Matt Flynn, who doesn’t have enough skill to run a balanced offense and keep pace with the high-flying Lions. Isolated defensive talents won’t be able to slow down Detroit at home. The Packers have lost four in a row.
Z-Code has a weak signal here. 58% ML odds on the Lions, with a 42% chance to cover the whole spread. Buy it down, tease it down, or parlay the money line.
Lions 34 – Packers 21
Oakland Raiders at Dallas Cowboys -7.5
I actually have this one at -9.5, but I bought it under the touchdown line once it moved. I also have the teaser.
The Cowboys are again without Sean Lee and Mo Claiborne. Without their top cornerback and their starting middle linebacker, this is a vulnerable defense. The Raiders, however, aren’t enough of an offensive threat. At home, with the Raiders traveling on a short week, I like the Cowboys to put up some serious points.
The computer is all over this one and is by far Z-Code’s strongest play of the day. There is a 78% chance the Cowboys take this one money line, and a 62% chance the Cowboys cover the spread. The computer sees four star value on the home team. All parameters are in order for a high-confidence play.
Cowboys 38 – Raiders 20
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens -2.5
I like the Ravens -2.5, the Ravens ML, and the Ravens teased to +4.5… I think this will be a battle.
The Ravens have put things together and have climbed back into the playoff picture. As have the Steelers. Ray Rice is doing nothing for the Ravens, but neither is the Steelers run game. The Ravens can move the ball through the air to their one star receiver. The Steelers do the same. Mediocrity abounds in this one in an even matchup. I think you have to side with the home team in a close battle.
Z-Code is conflicted. There is a 58% ML chance the Ravens win this one. However, the computer also sees five-star value on the underdog here, despite some value on the money line as well. There is a 54% calculation that the Ravens cover as well. Ultimately, the computer is conflicted. I expect a battle.
Ravens 27 – Steelers 21
P.S. Upgrade to Zcode VIP Club and Unlock All Winning Picks. Instant Access.
