NFL Picks and Predictions, Sunday Night Football: Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
Sunday Night’s matchup features divisional rivals that have combined for one loss so far this season. Most of us, myself included, have been waiting for the Chiefs to play the Broncos so this undefeated nonsense can stop. Now, however, I’m not so sure it will.
The Chiefs added a “game manager” behind center this offseason in Alex Smith, which has given them just enough offense to keep their stellar defense rested. They’re doing just enough to win, but it’s a consistent team – the most consistent in football.
The Broncos are solid, but they’re dealing with two factors here that push me to the Chiefs. First, Peyton Manning is hobbled by ankle injuries. He’s going to miss some throws if he’s unable to drive off his bad ankle. Second, the Broncos have to win by more than a touchdown. If this is a battle, the Chiefs have a big edge against the spread.
Given that I think the Chiefs have a chance to win this one outright, there’s undeniable value in a teaser at +14.5, and the spread at +8.
Z-Code is confused about this one. Two parameters are squarely in the favor of the Broncos. They give a 78% chance to win the game and 64% chance to cover the spread to the home favorite. However, the value parameter is conflicted and finds value on both sides of the line. As such, this is a low confidence wager, if anything, from the computer.
I like the Chiefs in a teaser. I will also be betting the spread. Z-Code likes the Broncos to cover, or a baromir-type parlay play in a system bet.
Broncos 31 – Chiefs 28 (+7.5, +14.5) 
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