Tom Brady 9500/8500
Phillip Rivers 8600/6900
Derek Carr 7000/5500

Brady is my number 1 QB this week. He’s got a great matchup against washington where the over/under is 52.5 and the patriots are a 14 point favorite. This means vegas expects them to score about 4 tds and I wouldn’t be surprised if at least 3 of them are from Brady. He’s kind of an obvious pick as he’s been a stud QB all year and is consistently the most expensive player at his position. I usually don’t like spending this kind of money when there are other QBs out there with value, but this week I like brady. I like pairing him with gronk, edelman, or dion lewis this week. The patriots will rack up a ton of points and we need to take advantage of that. I’m not in love with doubling down on them because of how expensive it is, but I’ll have a patriots-featured lineup at least once on both draftkings and fan duel.

Rivers has been consistent and a solid value play each week. I do have some concerns with keenan allen out, but the chargers run game has been nonexistent and gates is back so I think rivers puts up 18+ which is all we need from him. I like doubling down on him and Stevie Johnson this week. Johnson is a super low price guy with lots of upside and with allen out someone will have to take over his share of catches.

Derek Carr is my value play and I actually kind of love him. He’s showed us last week that he can put up big numbers against even the toughest of defenses and this week he has a decent matchup against the steelers. I don’t expect him to throw for 300 and 3 tds against the steelers on the road, but at his $5500 price on draftkings we only need him to get about 13 points and I think he does that easily. I like pairing him with crabtree who has been a fantasy darling as of recent. Both carr and crabtree will easily outperform their price and allows us the opportunity to load up elsewhere.

Jeremy Hill 6800/5200
Todd Gurley 9000/6900
Chris Ivory 7500/5900
Jonathan Stewart 6600/4300
Dion Lewis 7400/6400
Doug Martin 7100/5700
Danny Woodhead 6000/4800

Jeremy hill has been a fantasy enigma this year, but for everyone who’s been waiting for him to return to his 2014 self I believe this is the week he does it. The bengals are playing the browns- the number 30 defense against the run browns- at home. The only teams who haven’t rushed for over 100 yds against the browns are the chargers and the titans. Everyone else is averaging about 140 yds and a td against them. I think a lot of people are going with Bernard here in this matchup but I disagree wholeheartedly. The types of runners who have really shredded the browns are between-the-tackles bruisers like hill. Look for him to run for 100+ and a td or two.

Todd Gurley is on fire and we have no reason to expect that he won’t put up 16+ for us. However, his price has skyrocketed and now we need a solid 18 for him to be worth his value. With his skill set and production, I don’t mind you giving him a start, but at this price I also don’t mind you fading him. There are other RBs available at much better prices that can easily have the same type of game. Here is a good place to note, however, that the purpose of finding good value players is that it allows us to splurge on a guy like gurley who’s floor is so high. So, if you play jeremy hill to afford demaryius thomas and julian edelman thats fine. Its also fine if you play hill to afford todd gurley and julian edelman. I have the utmost confidence that Gurley will put up big numbers, but his price is far from sexy.

Chris Ivory had a weak showing last week, but the jets fell behind early and game flow forced them to throw the ball more. This week he has a great matchup against jacksonville at home. Not only is Jax number 25 against the run, but I think game flow will be in his favor. I think Ivory could easily see 25 carries this week and when Ivory get that kind of workload he tends to rush for well over 100. Against a team where doug martin rushed for 123 and three tds, I expect big things from Ivory. At 5900, he’s a steal.

Jonathan Stewart is coming off of three solid games for a combined 280+ yds and 3 tds. I really like him at home against a green bay run defense that was absolutely demolished by the combined lackluster talent of cj anderson and ronnie hillman last week (160 yds 3 tds). The only running back who hasn’t put up solid numbers against green bay this year has been carlos hyde (he’s awful). Stewart is a key cog in a weirdly successful panthers offense. At his price, 10 points would be a win and I think his floor is around 7 or 8. His ceiling, however, is much higher and that makes him into a solid add. The only thing I don’t like is Cam Newton’s propensity to steal his goal line work. However, I think at the bargain he’s going for he still should be in a lineup or two.

I honestly hate starting any patriots rbs ever because you never can be certain what Belechick is going to do. If the patriots don’t throw the ball 85% of the time and Blount doesn’t steal the whole second half from Lewis, I think he’ll have a great game. However, because of the fact that either of those two things could definitely happen, I don’t mind if you steer clear of lewis. I felt like I had to put him in here though because the patriots are primed to absolutely destroy the redskins and theres a good chance Lewis plays a crucial role in the ensuing bloodbath.

Doug martin is a beast and basically the focal point of the bucs mediocre offense. Vincent jackson and sefarian jenkins are both out so i’d expect the bucs to lean on the run game even more against a weak giants defense. The only thing I’m concerned about is the Giants scoring a ton of points that forces the bucs to abandon the run early. I don’t think that will happen as the bucs defense is much better than the saints and I think last weekend was a miracle that Eli will not repeat. I like martin in a lineup or two to diversify, but ivory, hill and gurley are still my top 3.

Danny woodhead is here because he’s the least terrible running back in the terrible chargers running corps. I have realized that Danny Woodhead is in all likelihood an actual leprechaun. I don’t see how anyone else with the frame of a 14 year old ballerina can be as successful as he is in the NFL. In all seriousness, he’s really good at catching passes and at 5’4” and 120lbs he can squeeze through the tiny holes his lineman make and actually score touchdowns. With keenan allen out I’d expect the chargers to lean on woodhead in the passing game. He’s shown that he’s fully capable of 25+ and with Rivers losing weapons left and right, woodhead may be the go-to guy. He’s worth an add if you’re strapped for cash and need a serviceable flex.

Demaryius Thomas 8400/7500
Mike Evans 7500/6800
Julian Edelman 8000/8200
Eric Decker 6300/5300
Allen Hurns 6800/5300
Stevie Johnson 5400/3200
Stefon Diggs 7400/5300
Willie Snead 6100/4800

Peyton Manning is back- and with him came Demaryius Thomas. Sanders was targeted maybe 2 times last week to thomas’s 1000. It may be because of a lingering injury he suffered in week 6, but for whatever reason Thomas has shown that he’s the guy in denver right now. I love him against a garbage colts defense thats averaging about 200 yds and 1.5 tds to opposing wideouts.

Evans had a lackluster showing last week and I was pretty big on him. However, the falcons made a point of essentially shutting him down and forcing winston to look elsewhere. Desmond Trufant is one of the best corners in the league and the falcons defense is good. The giants, who gave up 7 passing tds to drew brees last week, are not that caliber team and evans should have no problem getting his share. I love him this week in that game flow should not do anything to lower his floor but could raise his ceiling if the giants put up a ton of points early. For his price, he’s a steal.

Edelman is a PPR machine and had a killer game last week. Expect him to get his share in a patriots offense that is poised to score 30+ points this week. He’s expensive and the pats are unpredictable, and theres a chance that game flow will create a run-heavy offense. However, I still like edelman as a guy who should easily put up 15+ and can be a solid foundation for a lineup with some riskier value plays.

Decker has outperformed his price all year and with brandon marshall questionable due to a foot injury his role in the Jets offense has nowhere to go but up. His value is still sweet and his floor is high enough to make him a solid add.

Allen Hurns could end up being my Michael Crabtree of this week. Last week crabtree was featured in every one of my lineups and he crushed it. This was in large part because his more talented counterpart, amari cooper, was on revis island all game. The statistics strongly support playing a number 2 WR against the jets. Crabtree, ammendola, moncrief, kenny stills, have all outperformed their wr1 counterparts (and scored a td) against the jets. Allen Hurns is actually probably the most talented number two of this bunch. He does have the problem of blake bortles being his qb, but the jags will be throwing a lot this game. I like Hurns to put up big numbers.

With keenan allen out for the season someone will have to step up in the chargers offense. It’s either going to be stevie johnson or malcom floyd. Johnson’s value is much better in that we only need about 8 from him but I think he’s capable of 16. He’s a flyer for sure- his floor is low and we could easily end up with 2. If he’s in your lineup it better be because the rest of it is full of studs.

Diggs is getting to the point Todd Gurley was 2 weeks ago. He’s clearly much better than his price seems to advertise. I think its time we start believing in him. Note the disparity in price between FD and DK. Diggs is much more valuable in a DK lineup and therefore will probably not make it into my FD lineups. For instance, for and extra $100, I like mike evans a whole lot more on FD.

Snead is weird. Brees clearly likes him and thats a big deal. He has little competition in that cooks is mediocre and watson is like 70 years old. For whatever reason though, each player has been productive in a weirdly revived saints offense. I like snead but I don’t love him. In a game where Brees throws 6 TDs, I’d bet the house snead gets two. However, in a game brees throws two TDs I’m not sure where Snead will fall. He’s risky, but I think he manages at least 4 catches for 60 which is 8/10 FD/DK. That floor seems to justify him as a value pick considering he can easily break a big one off or find the end zone.