NFL Picks and Predictions, Week Four: San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams – Thursday Night Football
There are two trends, three really if you consider the downward spiral of the 49ers to be a trend, that make me very nervous about this game. First, Thursday Night Football always favors the home team. Since its inception into the NFL, the lack of prep time and the travel considerations of a shorter week always favor the home team. Second, the Rams beat the Niners last year in two tight, divisional rivalry games.
First, I don’t think the Rams’ wins last year are relevant. They lost their top running back and wide receiver, and they won those games on gimmick plays and fake kicks.
Second, I’m willing to go against the Thursday Night Football trend when the teams vary so considerably. There’s value here.
Here are my thoughts:
1) San Francisco is the significantly better team. THey have distractions with smith, but they’re much better. Offensively, defensively… just better across the board.
2) Thursday Night Football ALWAYS favors the home team. Short week to prepare, long travel, no time to recover, and out of the routine. Last year it was one of the strongest trends in football. I dont suspect it will change any time soon.
I’m on the Niners at 2.5 and I think there’s a ton of value here. I expect the Niners to move the ball just like the cowboys did — on the ground… throw a mobile qb into the mix and this could get ugly. That niners defense is still great and the Rams offense is mediocre at best.
I don’t expect a blowout but I like the value here.
Niners -2.5, ML, 1H, and -3. I’m on it with low-med confidence.
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