MLB Picks and Predictions: Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers
I saved my followers a lot of money on this series.
Every once in a while, the Brewers do this to us. They take a much better team playing decent baseball and they completely derail them. With Ryan Braun back in the lineup, Milwaukee has a ton of momentum here.
Still, they decided to go with an ineffective pitcher in the closing game of the series. He faces off against Mike Leake, who is having a phenomenal year so far. Further, the Reds have sweep resistance – A statistical edge that shows team perform better when on the verge of being swept. While this is more effective at home, it still should have a role here.
We basically get to pursue a C bet with a flat bet. We have no money invested in this series, but we have the statistical edge that chase progression systems live for. We can jump in now and risk little. If we fail, we lose a small wager. If we win, we capitalize on a mathematical edge on a far superior team.
My system:
Pitching edge strongly favors the Reds
Roster edge favors the Reds
Momentum favors the Brewers
Value in the line, but better team on the road
Z-Code support favors the Brewers, Weak signal.
Z-Code analysis:
Nice value on the Brewers, who are streaking
Weak moneyline signal conflicts with 5-star value
Possible sweep anticipates a close game.
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With a C Bet, but my fear of the Brewers at home and the cold lineup of the Reds, we tread lightly into a statistical edge with limited Z-Code support if any. We anticipate a tight game, like the value on the Reds, but see no reason to be aggressive here.
Low confidence, ML wager, Reds
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