Who Will Be the Next United States President: Sanders, Clinton, Rubio… Donald
Trump?
If you got in early, the odds were around 2:1 that a Democrat would beat the Republicans – a value-loaded line from Vegas given the disarray of the Republican party. That was before Hillary Clinton’s e-mails, Bernie Sanders’ momentum, Donald Trump’s emergence, or even Marco Rubio’s surge. Now that almost as much controversy surrounds the oval office as when Hillary Clinton’s husband was getting blown by an intern, it seems like a fun time to throw out our thoughts on a prop wager on who will win the 2016 United States Presidential Election. As such, I give you the official Z-Code endorsement for the 2016 United States Presidential Election.
As a general rule, we at Z-Code try not to encourage prop betting. Further, since attending law school I have tried to hold back my satirical journalist side a little bit in case future employers link these blog posts to me. This post will stray from both those trends, and we are going to have a little bit of fun with some politics betting.
You see, I’ve got all the credibility in the world as a sports investor – since I joined Z-Code we haven’t had a losing season in NHL, NFL, MLB, or even my one season covering the NBA during the NHL lockout – but what do I know about politics? For the most part, you guys don’t get to see my political opinions as they no longer leak into my sports betting posts. Well, as a special request from the Z-Code powers that be, here are my thoughts on the 2016 US Presidential Election, in vintage Z-Code fashion.
Hillary Clinton (+115)
We start with the obvious choice, Hillary Clinton, though it may not be as obvious as it once was. For me, Mrs. Clinton represents an abandonment of any semblance of political accountability we have ever had in this country. In the most recent political debate, she claimed to be “more than a one-issue candidate.” That’s true, but her stance on those issues seems as constant and authentic as Donald Trump’s hair.
Hillary Clinton has changed her stance on gay marriage, and is now somehow a champion of gay rights after denying marriage equality for years. She believes in reforming Wall Street but she accepts handouts for speaking fees. She made a calculated decision to stay with her husband following infidelity because she knew it would be best for her political career, but somehow Clinton maintains the backing of the majority of feminist voters. Hillary Clinton was part of the machine that suffocated the marginalized for far too many years to now be their champion.
Quite frankly, Hillary Clinton will do whatever it takes to become president, but she will not do what is right. She’s a traditional politician in every sense, except where traditional politicians would keep confidential e-mails off their personal e-mail account’s servers and not jeopardize national security. But hey, no big deal right? Or maybe a traditional candidate would not make up some lie about a cartoon to cover up a terrorist attack in Benghazi? But hey – still not a big deal right? A vote for Hillary Clinton is a vote for a broken system where lies and cover ups no longer render a candidate unviable as long as the establishment wants them there.
Based on the fact that I couldn’t bring myself to do it, I’m guessing that Americans might not be able to do it either. As such, I’m not going to pick the obvious candidate in this post.
Donald Trump (+200)
Following a convincing win in New Hampshire, Donald Trump is the next most likely person to be President of the United States. To me, this is almost unfathomable, and I see no value in a +200 line for Donald Trump to be the next president because even if this wager pays and you win, you’ll be forced to live in a country where Donald Trump is president.
Donald Trump’s victories are proof that maybe not everyone deserves a vote if a lunatic with no political record can use hate speech delivered at a 4th grade level and win by calling the other candidates pussies. Other countries are literally taking votes about whether or not to ban this man from ever visiting and we are still considering him for president. Amazing.
Trump is a winner, following his small loan of a million dollars from his Dad and multiple failed business ventures that went bankrupt with other people’s money. Trump will make Mexico build a wall with their drug money, ban Muslims to protect us from terrorism, and make America great again. He knows people and they will do important things.
Hopefully the rednecks keeping this man atop the nomination leaderboard come to their senses or drink too much moonshine on election day.
Bernie Sanders (+400)
For me, in a field lacking a viable candidate, Bernie Sanders is the obvious choice. His radical socialist ideals will be shot down by the other branches of government that prevent drastic change over a short period of time. Sanders will mean the end of corporate influence in elections, at least to a degree, and accountability in our political figures. It will be the upset of the century, and it will give us four more years to come up with a candidate that isn’t crazy. I do not believe much of what Sanders is selling, and I think the American dream is alive and well for those willing to work hard for it. What I do believe is that a candidate who will not get any of his crazy ideas passed in four years is what is best for this country given the other options. As such, I’m endorsing Bernie Sanders.
The Republican Field
Until they stop using religion to advance backward ideals, the disconnect with the rest of mainstream America will continue and candidates like Donald Trump will seem more viable. This year, the Republicans had a chance to take back the party amid scandal and chaos on the other side. I do not think a socialist could defeat a traditional Republican candidate if they sounded just a little bit less crazy.
Instead, candidates like Marco Rubio make comments like “case law precedent isn’t law” and that he will overturn marriage equality because God wants him to do that. Candidates are defunding Planned Parenthood because it is an abomination and an attack on Christianity to allow women to have access to cheap healthcare. Until the Republicans figure out that perhaps a socially moderate approach actually fits the “small government” bill that they once ran on far better than the invasive social rights suffocation approach they now run on, I do not see them winning another election.
The fact is, if they actually remolded the party, who would racist, redneck, bible belt, uneducated populations vote for? They wouldn’t suddenly become a democrat. The only difference is they would finally become a legitimate option for an election for undecided voters. There is no need to pander to the party’s least educated, yet that is the only way to win the Republican primary.
To me, I think Marco Rubio can emerge from this pack of fools. Ted Cruz looks like every political supervillian cartoon and movie character, and I just cannot trust him. Also, he was born in Canada. I believe that Donald Trump will fall off and an “establishment” candidate will get the nomination. But so what? It’s not like they will defeat a halfway legitimate democrat by taking the stances they currently do. The Republican party is an exaggeration of every New Yorker cartoon of the last 20 years. It’s time for a change – and maybe losing to a crazy cat lady or a socialist is exactly what they need to finally see the importance of reform.
As such, I’m going to put my money on Bernie Sanders at +400. At least he does what he says he will, and I’m confident almost none of his ideas will get through the checks and balances that keep this country from radical change and possible disaster.
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