2016 MLB Predictions and Podcast with Mark D.
So here is the podcast where we go through the system. This post is straight out of my forum, so it’s a little bit sloppy, but here are our MLB Predictions for the 2014 baseball season.
https://soundcloud.com/zcodesystem/mark-ds-2016-mlb-season-preview-and-predictions-podcast
It’s one of the best times of the sports year as the NHL season is wrapping up and playoffs are on the way, NBA is doing the same, and the 2016 MLB season is finally here. Join us as one of our founding members talks about his secrets to success in our annual MLB Season Preview and Predictions Podcast with Mark D.
Inside this Episode:
Mark, finishing up his 20th consecutive season in profit with the Z-Code community, gives his predictions for the 2016 MLB season.
– How Mark’s famous system works
– The key analysis parameters for proven success within the Z-Code community
– How this system works, year in and year out, to generate consistent profits
– The trick to hitting more than 90% of progression bets and sometimes up to 95% and 98% in a season.
– Previews for every division and team – from the New York Mets and Chicago Cubs to the New York Yankees and Houston Astros! Even the lowly Philadelphia Phillies!
– Bold predictions for playoff teams and division winners
– The importance of discipline, money management, and discretion
With season profits consistently between 10 and 50 units and an average bet size starting around one unit, this Podcast is a must for newbies and experienced users alike that want consistent profits and a low-risk system!
I usually do a write up just so everyone knows how this works:
ABC system
It’s a progression. I bet it based on the value in the line and to recover all bets through the series. Some are more aggressive than others. We adjust as we go. We only bet them in games I expect a sweep of a series. Example:
A bet: -200 line, 1 unit pays .5… Lose go on to b bet
B bet: -150 line, 1.5 units pays 1… Lose go on to c bet
C bet: -200 line, 6 units pays 3… Win, and win a total of a half unit on the entire series… lose and lose 8.5… but we hit about 95% of these each year so it pays off every season.
AB Doubler
See above, cut out the C bet option if we lose both.
Flat
one bet only with no chase.
Here are our predictions – mostly just for fun because they are very fluid:
2016 National League MLB Predictions: Cubs and Mets Dominate
For me, the National League is just much more interesting to me than the American League (with the possible exception of the AL East). The NL East saw the Washington Nationals slip into dysfunction and the New York Mets unleash a full rotation of dominant young pitching. The NL Central is likely the most competitive division from top to bottom, and the Chicago Cubs look like they are relevant once again. The NL West is loaded with great pitchers in big pitchers’ parks. It’s going to be a fun year.
NL East:
1. New York Mets (92-70): A full rotation of some of the best arms in baseball got the New York Mets to the World Series. With most of the offense back and another year to get used to an unfamiliar winning culture, I expect the Mets to be even better.
2. Washington Nationals (88-74): The Washington Nationals were so dysfunctional last season that a washed up closed started a physical altercation with the best player in baseball. That said, the pitching is still there and they have enough pieces to really compete in 2016.
3. Miami Marlins (78-84): Injuries derailed the season for the Marlins last year. As a Yankee fan, the impacts of losing your ace are obvious to me. Coupled with losing your best player, and it’s just a disaster. With everyone back, I expect the Marlins to be less pitiful.
4. Atlanta Braves (72-90): Call me cynical, but I don’t buy into fire sale rebuilds in franchises with empty stadiums. The Atlanta Braves are on their way to becoming a modern day Tampa Bay Rays. Either way, this will not be their year.
5. Philadelphia Phillies (70-92): The Philadelphia Phillies had a decent run a few years ago, which allowed Philadelphia fans to do a lot of talking. Now, they’re the only type of Philadelphia fans that people like – the quiet, disappointed ones who only pop up once in a while to criticize the franchise.
NL Central:
1. Chicago Cubs (95-67): I want to believe in the Chicago Cubs. I think it’s cool that they made some big moves this offseason and with Boston out from under the curse I so enjoyed, it feels like the Cubs just deserve a World Series. That said, this is the toughest division in baseball.
2. Pittsburgh Pirates (92-70): I also like rooting for the Pittsburgh Pirates. A team with one of the worst owners in sports history is winning despite years of high profits and low roster salaries and I think that’s good for the sport. I expect another exciting season from a very good team.
3. St. Louis Cardinals (90-72): The Cardinals are older and the rotation is once again dealing with injuries, but I’m not crazy enough to bet against this franchise. All they do is win, and despite the tough division I can’t help but think they’ll find a way. Still, the core is getting up in years and is ready for a step back.
4. Cincinnati Reds (66-96): The Reds lineup is anchored by one of the best hitters in baseball, but the rest of the roster is filled with holes. The bullpen took a big step backwards, and the rotation will need to carry the load if they will compete. I don’t think there’s enough talent here.
5. Milwaukee Brewers (65-97): The Brewers are terrible and I hate them. I hate Ryan Braun, I hate their stupid glove and ball nonsense logo, and I hate Milwaukee’s Best beer. This franchise will continue to struggle in 2016.
AL West
1. Arizona Diamondbacks (89-73): Zack Greinke and Shelby Miller are probably the best 1-2 punch in the division and the lineup is starting to look a little bit exciting. I think they have enough pieces to steal the division.
2. Los Angeles Dodgers (88-74): The Dodgers will need to make a move to win this division. They have fallen behind, lost an ace pitcher, and will need to reload. The lineup hasn’t been enough in disappointing playoff showings.
3. San Francisco Giants (86-76): A couple of free agent pitchers make the Giants look a lot like the type of Giants teams that won those World Series. Still, this team can’t hit and the division is probably too good.
4. San Diego Padres (84-78): This team is too good to be this bad, right? A few disappointing pitchers and a bad hitters park and suddenly a roster built to win now imploded. I think they’ll be better, but not a playoff team.
5. Colorado Rockies (74-88): Someone has to take the fall in this division and I guess it’s the Rockies. I’m big on their young shortstop, I like their young third baseman, I like the way this team can mash, but nobody can pitch here. They’ll struggle again, even if my fantasy team is rooting for them to score 10 runs a game.
2016 MLB Predictions: AL West Picks – Astros, Rangers, Angels
I really am starting to like the Houston Astros, and nothing makes me happier than watching Jesus Montero tank and Robinson Cano complain about how great it was to be the second baseman for the New York Yankees. Watching the Seattle Mariners crumble is a great joy. So far, I’ve liked how the AL West has shaken out in recent years. Heck, even with the Texas Rangers finally driving out their cracked our manager that cost them a World Series win, all the teams in this division seem to be doing it right… Well, except the Oakland Athletics…
1. Houston Astros (88-74): The Astros stumbled a little bit down the stretch and ceded the division to the streaking Rangers, but it was a magical year for Houston. A young rotation lived up to expectations while a scrappy roster found ways to win. I like them to continue on the path to playoff expectations and redemption. Before you know it, Jose Altuve might be leading the next successful Astros era.
2. Texas Rangers (87-75): I know I alluded to it in the intro, but it cannot be said enough – Ron Washington crippled this franchise with boneheaded management and playoff collapses when this roster was among the best in baseball. Now that he’s out of the way, the Rangers should be very competitive again this year. A decent rotation and a hitter friendly park with a strong lineup will be all the Rangers need to replicate last season’s success.
3. Los Angeles Angels (83-81): Something about this team just rubs me the wrong way. Expensive free agents that never pan out, a weak division that they never seem to win, a franchise name that has two cities in it because they cheated Anaheim out of an MLB franchise… whatever it is, I hope they miss the playoffs again as their big names are another year older and Mike Trout can’t do it all by himself.
4. Seattle Mariners (71-91): Remember when Robinson Cano wanted to come back to the Yankees and instead they brought in Starlin Castro and moved him over from shortstop? Remember when Michael Pineda had a bum shoulder and Jesus Montero was going to anchor the lineup? Remember that 1B prospect they had… the lanky white kid that they got when Cliff Lee went to Texas? Justin Smoak? Mike Carp? It seems everything this franchise does goes wrong – plus they’re in a rainy sad city where playing bad baseball and being miserable is all there is. That and being the Twilight vampire kids.
5. Oakland Athletics (70-92): This is what happens when the small ball organization tactics that kept you relevant are given to rival franchises with more money than you. Sorry Oakland – good luck.
2016 MLB Predictions: AL Central Picks – Royals, Tigers, Twins
It’s easy to ignore the chaos that consumed the AL Central last year and look only at the Kansas City Royals and their success. The Royals were projected by many, myself included, to take a step back last year. They did not. More surprisingly, the Minnesota Twins finished above .500, the Detroit Tigers tanked, and the full mediocrity of this division was absolutely astonishing. This year, who will emerge?
1. Kansas City Royals (90-72): It’s hard to put your finger on the Kansas City Royals. They have serviceable, young pitching and a coach that understands what they are trying to do. More importantly, the Royals have speed and a full lineup of contact hitters. The way this team is built lends to continued stability and consistency. It’s hard to see that falling apart all of a sudden this year.
2. Detroit Tigers (83-79): It’s also hard to see the Detroit Tigers being this bad again, two years in a row. The middle of this lineup can mash with the best of them, and I expect them to solve some of their pitching issues. I think the Tigers will bounce back a little in a division that is begging for someone new to emerge from this pack of mediocre teams.
3. Minnesota Twins (82-80): I like the Minnesota Twins as a small market club that sustained success for almost a decade of baseball. Though nothing came of it, you knew the Twins would be there at the end of the year. Now, you look at them as a roster of minor leaguers trying to fight through their own lack of star power. While last year impressed me, I just don’t know if they are ready to take the next step forward.
4. Cleveland Indians (80-82): For years we have looked at the Cleveland Indians as a team on the cusp of legitimacy. Now, I’m ready to give up on them. There is something about this organization that is just missing. I cannot see them overtaking the Royals, but I think they’ll be right in this bubble of garbage a tier below the division winners.
5. Chicago White Sox (76-86): At this point, you have to feel bad for Chris Sale. I even feel bad for David Robertson, but not too much because he and his high socks never should have left New York (even if it wasn’t his choice). The White Sox are still bad and I don’t see that changing anytime real soon.
2016 MLB Predictions: AL East Picks, Blue Jays, Yankees, Red Sox
So last year was something of a disaster for the Boston Red Sox. Eventually they finished just six games under .500, but for much of the season they just looked lost. Enter the Toronto Blue Jays, who smashed their way to the top of the standings and into the hearts of the casual fan. Despite Toronto’s dominance down the stretch, an old and broken New York Yankees team also found their way into the playoffs despite countless injuries. This year, the Blue Jays have lost their ace, the Red Sox have added that ace, and the New York Yankees picked up the best closer in baseball. So what really wins baseball games? Hitting, pitching, or bullpen?
1. New York Yankees (89-73): When the New York Yankees were winning World Series, they built a scrappy roster that clawed their way through games. They won late and they won often. The Yankees built their dynasty on the best closer to ever play, shortening games by an inning. They also happened to have one of the best shortstops of all time, but that’s not where we base this prediction. With a healthy rotation, three incredible relievers to close out a game, and enough offense to sustain wins, I like the New York Yankees to surprise people this year.
2. Toronto Blue Jays (88-74): What is an ace pitcher really worth? Well, if you look at the back end of the Toronto Blue Jays season, apparently it’s worth an incredible surge up the standings. Once David Price came on to anchor this rotation, the Blue Jays never looked back. With Price gone, the team still doesn’t have a true ace. They can hit, but they can always hit and they never seem to put it all together. I think a taste of winning is all this franchise got last year, and I don’t see them dominating again.
3. Boston Red Sox (87-75): One of the worst rotations in baseball added an ace to the top of their rotation, but there is still a lot missing here. A few young players have emerged, but I don’t like the rest of this rotation behind David Price and I don’t expect the Red Sox to suddenly become the sluggers we feared they might be when they first acquired Hanley Ramirez. I expect more relative mediocrity because of the rotation, but I don’t expect the Red Sox to be terrible again now that they have at least one legitimate pitcher.
4. Baltimore Orioles (81-81): I like Buck Schowalter, but this is sort of his MO. He gets people to be excited about playing for him, the team spikes, and then they slowly drift back into nothing and the team gets rid of him. The Orioles have a few really dynamic and exciting pieces, but last year proved they are not quite ready to compete in a talented division.
5. Tampa Bay Rays (76-86): To me, it is amazing that this small market team with one of the worst stadiums in baseball has been able to cling to mediocrity for this long. They rose quickly, they have fallen slowly, and the Rays are still hanging around. Will they bring up some young arms and surprise everyone again? Maybe. The problem is this division is loaded and the Rays have lost the depth that made them great. I think they will find themselves fighting at the bottom of the AL East this year.
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