A dramatic contrast in styles highlights the 2nd round matchup between Utah and Golden State. Utah has a quick turnaround after closing out the Clippers on the road in a game 7 while Golden State dominated Portland in a sweep.
Golden State has won 19 of their last 20 games – the lone loss being to Utah at the Oracle. But it’s hard to look at the regular season in this case. The Warriors won the season series 2-1 but key players were missing for one or both teams in every game.
The biggest and most obvious difference between these teams is pace of play. Golden State averages 102.2 possessions per game, good for 4th in the league. Meanwhile, Utah averages 93.6 possessions per game, last in the NBA.
Golden State will want to push the pace as much as possible and try and build early leads. Having a week off after sweeping Portland will help, giving Kevin Durant a chance to get back to 100%. Durant, Curry, Thompson and Green will come out running and gunning, trying to put as much pressure on Utah to speed up the game.
On the other side, Utah wants to do the exact opposite. Limiting the Warriors in transition and using as much of the shot clock as possible will hopefully allow them to hang around until crunch time. The Jazz are +46 in the final 5 minutes of games when down by 5 points or less so their goal is to somehow hang around and then close strong.
From an investor perspective, I think under the total needs to be considered. With the pace of play and the public perception of a high scoring game, the books should leave a little value on the under. I also think Utah against-the-spread will be worth a look although Game 1 might be too quick of a turnaround for them.
Utah is a good team. They rebound, play tough defense and don’t quit. But assuming Durant is healthy, I don’t see an upset happening. Golden State in 5.
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