The Royals are squaring up for the second game of their three game series at Fenway after comfortably winning game one 6-3. Tonights matchup is slotted to be a pitching battle with Royals ace, Danny Duffy (ERA 2.66 11-1), facing David Price (ERA 4.00 12-8). These numbers on paper seem to indicate a hefty pitching edge in favor of Kansas City. The line, however, indicates otherwise with the Red Sox currently at a -164 favorite and KC as +150 dogs. Generally, we at Zcode would jump on such a game where theres solid value in an team with momentum (KC has won 5 of their last 6) and a big pitching edge. However, since 8:45 last night, the line has jumped from -147 for Boston to the -164 it’s at now. With 71% of the public on KC and Vegas shifting the line to put more money on the underdogs, we at Zcode smell something fishy. Coupled with the fact that this is one of the most public sports games tonight, this sort of behavior indicates that Vegas believes Boston will be the winner and is trying to cash in on a gullible public. Hence, we advise that you steer clear of betting this game no matter how tempting it may be.

Similarly to the Red Sox/Royals game, the seemingly stronger Cubs have come in as underdogs (+110 currently). With 68% of the public on the Cubs and sharp line movement (-102 to -119 for the Dodgers since 9am) designed to shift more money that direction, we’re steering clear of what appears to be a juicy opportunity to bet Chicago.