Heading into the halfway point of the MLB season, a big storyline so far has been the number of homeruns and increased scoring. But some pitchers have somehow avoided the offensive barrage while others have been disproportionately hammered.
Fangraphs has put together a list of pitchers that are primed for a regression and a list of pitchers that should improve during the 2nd half of the season. Understanding these stats can offer great potential for profit during the 2nd half of the MLB season.
Here are the potential ERA regressers whose ERA is significantly lower than their SIERA:
As you can see, only 2 of the 20 pitchers listed have SIERA below 4.00. Comparing a pitcher’s current season stats to their career average is a way to see what spots might regress. A high Left-On-Base % (LOB%) and a low Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) are almost always due for regression. Both of these are somewhat driven by luck as the random sequence of events matter (HR, out, walk, out, out = 1-0 or walk, out, HR, out, out = 2-0) while a hard hit ball right at a defender might have been a hit just a few feet in either direction.
Here are the potential ERA improvers whose ERA is significantly higher than their SIERA:
Many pitchers on this list are bad and, while they might improve, it won’t matter that much. But there are a handful of good pitchers who have been the victim of bad luck. Looking at high BABIP and low LOB% and comparing that number to a pitcher’s historical average is a good place to start.
Obviously, this doesn’t mean we should bet against every pitcher in the first list and bet on every pitcher in the second list. A deeper dive into the data is required to find the right pitcher with the right matchup but putting in that work will allow you to find real value and many times a great plus priced ticket.
A great way to take advantage of these spots is to use ZCode’s Line Reversals Tool. Whenever one of the pitchers you think will regress or improve is pitching, watching where the sharp money is going will be a strong indicator as these type of stats are exactly what sharp bettors will be monitoring and investing in. Find the Zcode Line Reversals Tool HERE
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