One aspect of line-making that doesn’t get talked about much is public perception. In addition to stats and the situation, bookmakers factor in the public perception of the game before setting a line and this exposes real value for the sharp bettor.
A great way to consistently find value is to go against the grain in stand-alone games or late games. Monday Night Football, the Superbowl, Sunday Night Baseball and semis and finals in major tennis tournaments are relatively high ticketed games with the public trying to recoup losses from earlier in the day/week.
Obviously, books use this to their advantage and shade the lines to maximize their profit. The sports media also plays a role in this, routinely labeling a team a “favorite” and writing articles and headlines based on that notion when the reality is much different. Here is one recent example from the French Open Semifinals.
As you can see, ESPN considered Wawrinka winning an upset. But a look at the closing odds reveal he was a relatively solid favorite given the situation. That type of media-to-oddsmaker line discrepancy should act as an alarm bell for anyone wanting to put money on the Andy Murray side.
Sunday Night Baseball is another great opportunity for us. This game will almost always have more tickets than the daily average as public bettors love the late action.
Yesterday’s SNB game is a great example. Using the ZCode Line Reversals Tool, we can easily see that Detroit was the side with the value:
Fading the public and ignoring media bias while using the ZCode Line Reversals Tool is a great way to find hidden value and increase profits.
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