Predictions for games June 9 through June 11
Tools used in helping make the predictions are the Pitcher Profit Oscillator, Volatility Oscillator and MLB Strength Oscillator.
First Series: Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees
Before delving into the pitching matchups, we can get an overall sense of the series looking at the Volatility Oscillator and MLB Strength Oscillator . Neither team are in the top 10 most stable teams. The most stable teams aren’t the best, per say, but win the most when favored to win and lose the most when underdogs. According to the MLB Strength Oscillator, the Orioles are at -5.02 and are of “average” status, but have delinced since May 21. The Yankees also on “average” status, but come in stronger at +3.75. If any pitching matchup is a near “toss-up”, I will give the edge towards the Yankees due to a higher strength number.
First game features Dylan Bundy for the Orioles versus Jordan Montgomery for the Yankees.
Bundy is 6-4 with a 2.93 ERA, but has a 4.06 ERA and 1-3 over his last 31 innings. Montgomery is 3-4 with a 3.67 ERA but has allowed only 2 earned runs over the last 17 innings. He has been inconsistent, though, which is a factor to consider. Looking in terms of pure betting, Bundy has an advantage with the Pitcher Profit Oscillator at +475 compared to Montgomery’s -81. Because of this big difference, the pick goes to the Orioles.
In the second game, Chris Tillman goes for the Orioles against Luis Severino for the Yankees. While the actual matchup appears extremely lopsided based on traditional stats, the prediction based on betting is oppsotie. Tillman has an ERA of 5.59 and has allowed 10 earned runs in this last 8 2/3 innings. Severino is 4-2 with a 2.90 ERA and only 4 earned runs in his last 26 1/3 innings. His negative profit is far different than that of Tillman, who comes in at +4219. Take the gamble and pick Tillman, despite him appearing to be the clear underdog in this match up.
In the series finale, Kevin Gaussman goes for the Orioles versus Masahiro Tanaka for the Yankees. Both pitchers have clearly struggled, Gaussman is 3-4 with a 5.92 ERA and 7.55 ERA since May 3. He is at -1253 profit using the Pitcher Profit Oscialltor. Tanaka has been bad, as well, pitching to a 6.55 ERA, however he is +1500 profit and if he’s on, is very difficult to hit. Give the final game to the Yankees.
Possible pick Orioles +1.5 ABC progression
Second Series: Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Getting a general sense of the direction the teams are heading, taking a look at the Volatility Oscillatorand MLB Strength Oscillator. The Dodgers are considered “burning hot” according to the strength oscillator with a +3.12, while the Reds are “ice cold” at -6.66, which is their worst rating all season and are declining. The Dodgers are also the third most stable team in the league, which is worth noting since they will be favored in every game this series.
In the series opener, Amir Garrett goes for the Reds, while Rich Hill takes the mound for the Dodgers. Garrett is 3-4 with a very high 7.17 ERA and has allowed 21 earned runs over the lsat 11 2/3 innings. He’s at -131 according to the profit oscillator. On the flip side, Hill has a 4.15 in six starts this season and is at +433 profit and has been positive in that category all season. This is an easy prediction, go with the Dodgers.
Saturday’s game features Asher Wojciechowski for the Reds and Kenta Maede for the Dodgers. This matchup is more even. Wojciechowski is 1-0 with a 5.63 ERA, while Maeda is 4-3 with a 5.16 ERA. Maeda has pitched better of late, but has a -459 profit. Wojcichiewski has a better profit at +438, but has only eight career games under his belt. The Dodgers are the home team and are most stable, so being the favorite, the edge goes to the Dodgers.
The final game features Tim Adelman versus Alex Wood. Surprising Wood has not faired well with betters, having a -2062 profit according to the oscillator, while Adelman is also in the red, but only -64. Again looking at the raw data, Wood has the edge, going 6-0 with a 1.89 ERA, while Adelman is 3-2 with a 4.89 ERA. This one could go either way. I would probably bet on Wood, weighing his overall numbers and team stability and strength more than his profit numbers. I would go with the Dodgers, but for those that value the profit oscillator more highly, you can take a gamble on the Reds.
Possible pick : Reds+1.5 ABC progression.
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