A 1-2 ATS hiccup in Week 8 takes our YTD to 16-8. Let’s see if we can find a few potential plays for Week 9. The main strategy I want to implement is fading the public. Books are always looking to exploit public perception so hopefully we can find a few winners by fading the public in a few heavily public-bet games. Obviously, this is written on Saturday (11/4) so always keep an eye on the changing lines and percentages.


The Rams are one of the surprises so far this NFL season while the Giants have been awful. The public is all aboard the Rams train.


On paper, this is a one sided match up as the Rams have been playing very well. But traveling to New York is always a tough road trip and with the Giants looking for any possible way to salvage their season, I expect a big effort from them at home. Let’s take the New York Giants +4.5 (Bookmaker)


The Eagles have become a potential Super Bowl team and the public has taken notice.


While the Eagles are 7-1 and one of the top teams in the league, they have quietly been playing sloppy against bad teams. On the other side, Denver is in desperation mode. Brock Osweiler will be the new starting quarterback and that news has allowed sportsbooks to drift the line out even further, creating some value for us. Let’s take the Denver Broncos +8 (5Dimes)


The public just cannot allow themselves to put money behind Jay Cutler.


While both of these teams are desperate for a win, the Dolphins are coming off their worst loss in 18 years. Now at home, Miami will either fold or give a max effort to redeem their poor play from last week. I think we will see a much better effort. Let’s take the Miami Dolphins +3 (BetOnline)

Like I mentioned, keeping an eye on the lines and percentages before kickoff is important. Fading the public is very successful when the public side is 80%+ so keep that in mind as the betting volume grows.

Like all sports investing, this strategy is most effective over the course of an entire season. Use consistent money management and stick to the plan in order to maximize profit. As always, using ZCode’s Line Reversals Tool is a great way to stay on top of all the action. You can find the tool HERE


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4 thoughts on “NFL + FADE THE PUBLIC = $$

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