After a 3-0 ATS sweep in Week 5, let’s take a look at a few games for Week 6. The main strategy I want to implement is fading the public. NCAAF doesn’t have the betting volume that the NFL gets so we will have to be selective in our approach. But books are always looking to exploit public perception so hopefully we can find a few winners by fading the public in a few heavily public-bet games. Obviously, this is written on Tuesday (10/3) so always keep an eye on the changing lines and percentages.
LOUISVILLE @ NORTH CAROLINA STATE
Louisville, led by Lamar Jackson, has all the hype and the betting public’s attention.
Like last week, we’re able to catch a very good team at home as an underdog on a Thursday night game. NC State is an underrated team and I expect a huge effort from them at home. Let’s take NC State +4.
LSU @ FLORIDA
After LSU’s disaster loss against Troy, the public has jumped all over the Florida train.
This is a great example of buying on bad news as LSU is coming off an embarrassing loss and Ed Orgeron is now on the hot seat. This is a must win game for LSU and I expect a big bounce back effort. LSU also matches up well with Florida and catching a few points in a low scoring game sounds good to me. Let’s take LSU +3.
FLORIDA STATE @ MIAMI
Miami has shown glimpses of being a good team and the public is ready to get behind them.
While Miami is a good team, Florida State has played a tough schedule and had to incorporate a new quarterback after the first game. Coming off a conference win, I expect a big effort from a hungry FSU team looking to maintain their dominance over Miami. Let’s take Florida State +3.
Like I mentioned, we have a few days until these games take place with lots of wagering in between so keeping an eye on the lines and percentages throughout the week is important. Fading the public is very successful when the public side is 80%+ so keep that in mind as the week progresses and the betting volume grows.
Like all sports investing, this strategy is most effective over the course of an entire season. Use consistent money management and stick to the plan in order to maximize profit. As always, using ZCode’s Line Reversals Tool is a great way to stay on top of all the action. You can find the tool HERE
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