NCAAF is in full swing and it’s time to jump in on the action. The main strategy I want to implement is fading the public. NCAAF doesn’t have the betting volume that the NFL gets so we will have to be selective in our approach. But books are always looking to exploit public perception so hopefully we can find a few winners by fading the public in a few heavily public-bet games. Obviously, this is written on Wednesday (9/27) so always keep an eye on the changing lines and percentages.
OKLAHOMA STATE @ TEXAS TECH
Oklahoma State took their first loss of the season last week but they are ranked 15th in the country and the public expects them to bounce back.
Winning on the road in Lubbock is very difficult, especially at night. Texas Tech will throw everything they have at Oklahoma State and should get a great effort. This line is dropping down so I think we can go ahead and jump on Texas Tech +10 (BetOnline)
HOUSTON @ TEMPLE
Houston is the team with the pedigree and the public has jumped on the bandwagon.
This is a tough road trip for Houston after losing a close game at home vs Texas Tech. Temple is already 0-1 in conference play and this is a must win for them so a huge effort should be expected. Let’s take Temple +14 (5Dimes).
VANDERBILT @ FLORIDA
Vanderbilt was crushed by Alabama and Florida was lucky to get a win vs Kentucky. Florida has not looked good and the public is on the Vanderbilt train.
Florida changed quarterbacks for this game and Luke Del Rio should be an upgrade from what they were getting at that position. Vanderbilt has been a trendy sleeper team but after a meltdown last week I don’t think it gets any easier for them against a hungry Florida team. Let’s take Florida -10 (Bookmaker).
Like I mentioned, we have a few days until these games take place with lots of wagering in between so keeping an eye on the lines and percentages throughout the week is important. Fading the public is very successful when the public side is 80%+ so keep that in mind as the week progresses and the betting volume grows.
Like all sports investing, this strategy is most effective over the course of an entire season. Use consistent money management and stick to the plan in order to maximize profit. As always, using ZCode’s Line Reversals Tool is a great way to stay on top of all the action. You can find the tool HERE
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