As we know, the betting public prefers favorites and overs. While betting the total doesn’t get anywhere near the tickets that the spread bets do, there is value to be found in targeting unders.
Through Week 4 of the 2017 NCAAF season, unders have gone 158-122 (56%) and we’re going to take a look at 3 games with potential under plays for us.
MIAMI (OHIO) @ NOTRE DAME
Using the ZCode Line Reversals Tool, we can see where the early bets have been going.
Despite the public on the over, the total moved from 54.5 to 53.5. Notre Dame is coming off a big road win over Michigan State so I think there is potential for a slow start before building a lead and staying on the ground for most of the 4th quarter. Let’s take Miami(OH)/Notre Dame Under 53.5 (5Dimes)
USC @ WASHINGTON ST
This will be a total that the public will have a very hard time betting the under.
A huge game for Washington State at home on a Friday night and it will be loud and crazy. Given the emotion of the moment and a short week to prepare, I can see both sides coming out with a little too much energy and taking a few series before they settle into a rhythm. While both offenses are very capable of putting points on the board, the total has dropped a point at some books. Let’s take USC/Washington State Under 62 (5Dimes)
MIAMI(FL) @ DUKE
Another game that the public has jumped on the over.
Like Washington State, this is one of the biggest conference games of the year for Duke and they will be looking to build off the momentum from winning at UNC last week. Meanwhile, Miami will be looking to set the tone in their conference opener. The Hurricanes will try to flex their muscle defensively and control the game on the ground. Despite the public on the over, the total has dropped two points after opening at 57.5. Let’s take Miami(FL)/Duke Under 55.5
Obviously, using consistent money management and keeping an eye on the lines and percentages until kickoff is important. As always, ZCode’s Line Reversals Tool is a great way to stay on top of all the action. You can find the tool HERE
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