As we know, the betting public prefers favorites and overs. While betting the total doesn’t get anywhere near the tickets that the spread bets do, there is value to be found in targeting unders.
Through Week 5 of the 2017 NCAAF season, unders have gone 186-147 (56%). We started off last week going 2-1 on our O/Us so let’s take a look at 3 games with potential under plays for us this week.
GEORGIA @ VANDERBILT
Using the ZCode Line Reversals Tool, we can see where the early bets have been going.
Despite the public on the over, the total has dropped up to two points at some books. Vanderbilt is going to have a hard time scoring. Without the ability to keep up with Georgia offensively, Vanderbilt’s only chance is to play a ball control game and win field position. Let’s take Georgia/Vanderbilt Under 41.
ALABAMA @ TEXAS A&M
Another game that the public has jumped on the over.
A huge game for A&M at home and it will be loud and crazy. Both teams run the ball well and defend against the run well so I think we can expect to see some clock-eating drives and field goals. While both offenses are very capable of putting points on the board, the total has dropped 2.5 points at some books. Let’s take Alabama/Texas A&M Under 55.
CALIFORNIA @ WASHINGTON
This will be a total that the public will have a very hard time betting the under.
Washington has been very good on defense this season and I expect a statement type performance from that side of the ball. Despite the public on the over, the total has dropped 5 points at some books after opening at 57.5. Let’s take California/Washington Under 53
Obviously, using consistent money management and keeping an eye on the lines and percentages until kickoff is important. As always, ZCode’s Line Reversals Tool is a great way to stay on top of all the action. You can find the tool HERE
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