Nats vs Cards and Rangers vs White Sox picks and predictions

Baseball predictions June 30 through July 2 Washington Nationals versus St. Louis Cardinals

Getting a general overview of the teams entering the series, the Nationals come in at +23 on the Power Ranking Indicator, while the Cardinals are at +6. According to the Team Strength Oscillator, the Nationals are at -2.01 and the Cardinals are at -15.59 and declining steadily. This is a clear indication that the Nationals are the hotter team. Neither team is in the top ten in the Volatility Oscillator, meaning I’m not taking favorite or underdog status into as much consideration as the rest of the numbers.

Looking at the pitching match ups:

June 30: Tanner Roark versus Mike Leake

Roark is 6-5 with a 5.15 ERA this season and has been even worse of late, going 0-3 with a 12.51 ERA over the last four games. Not surprisingly his Profit Oscillator number of +121 has been on the decline since the end of May. Lake has also struggled lately, but not nearly as bad as Roark, posting a 0-4 record and 5.65 ERA over the last six. For the season, Leake is 5-6 with a 3.12 ERA. While his Profit Oscillator number is -1542, he’s been most steady since Roark. Given that Leake has the better overall track record than Roark and the Cardinals are at home, I pick the Cardinals in this one.

July 1: Gio Gonzalez versus Michael Wacha

Gonzalez enters the game the hotter of the two pitchers. He’s 7-2 with a 2.87 ERA for the season and 4-1 over the last six. Wacha, on the other hand, it 4-3 with a 4.50 ERA. While Wacha’s Pitcher Profit Oscillator number is more favorable at +373 compared to +74 for Gonzalez, he has declined since the start of the season. I pick the better overall team and better pitcher at the moment, and that is Gonzalez and the Nationals.

July 2: Max Scherzer versus Carlos Martinez

Both pitchers have been stellar this season. Scherzer is 9-5 with a 2.06 ERA, while Martinez is 6-6 with a 2.88 ERA. Although Martinez has a 1.67 ERA over his last 27 innings of work, Gonzalez has been even more unhittable, posting a 0.99 ERA over his last seven starts. Not surprisingly, both pitchers have been excellent bets, with Scherzer’s Profit Oscillator number at +2037 compared to +1315 for Martinez. In a battle of the aces, I give the nod to Scherzer.

Texas Rangers versus Chicago White Sox

Looking at this match up on paper, it would appear the Rangers have an easy sweep lined up in Chicago, but that might not be the case. Both teams rank high on the Volatility Oscillator, making them consistent winner when favorites and losers when underdogs. The Rangers are clearly the hotter team, with a +24 mark and rising in the Power Ranking Indicator, compared to +1 and declining for the White Sox. Not surprisingly, there is a big difference in the Team Strength Oscillator with the Rangers at +9.28 and burning hot, while the White Sox are at -2.43.

Here are the pitching match ups:

June 30:  Austin Bibens-Dirkx versus Mike Pelfrey

Bibens-Dirks, a 32-year old rookie with nine MLB games under his belt, is 3-0 with a 3.68 ERA. Gien his low sample size, it’s difficult to make much out of his +181 Profit Oscillator number. The good news is that is his highest of his career. Pelfrey is 3-6 with a 3.73 ERA, but is 3-2 over his last five and a 2.45 ERA over the last eight. His Profit Oscillator number of +194 means he’s about an equal bet compared to Bibens-Dirkx. I give the nod due to experience and home field advantage to Pelfrey and the White Sox.

July1:  Cole Hamels versus Derrek Holland

In a battle of the lefties, Hamels is 2-0 with a 4.38 ERA in six starts this season. The veteran struggled in his return from injury, allowing 7 in 4 1/3 innings. Holland comes in at 5-7 with a 4.26 ERA but is 1-4 over his last six starts. Both pitchers have been a good bet, with Hamels coming in at +1293 on the Profit Oscillator. Holand has been up and down but comes in at +1543.  With pitchers nearly even, I give the edge to the Rangers because of their better overall play lately combined with Holland’s poor win-loss record of late.

July 2:  Tyson Ross versus Jose Quintanta

Ross has pitched in only four MLB games over the past two seasons, which definitely is a factor in my decision for this game. He’s 1-1 with a 6.14 ERA this year, although was solid in his last start allowing a single run in six innings. Quintana is 4-8 with a 4.37 ERA but has a 1.80 ERA over his last five starts. Neither pitcher has been a good bet, both high in the negative in terms of the Profit Oscillator. Since the match up is relatively even, I give the edge to Quintana simply because Ross hasn’t pitched much against Major League hitters since 2015. The White Sox will take advantage of this and unexpectedly win this game and the series.

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