The MLB season is a long grind because of the sheer number of games but that also creates opportunity for value if you have patience and understand line movements. One profitable way to find value is to follow steam moves on MLB money line plays. A steam move is defined as a sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the entire sports betting marketplace. For the most part, a steam move originates from respected sharp money.
Basically, steam chasing is a way to be on the side with sharp money and get that number at the cheapest/most profitable price you can. The key to chasing steam in MLB is to know which books set the market and cater to sharp bettors. I prefer to use Pinnacle as my “steam trigger” as they open early and cater to professional bettors. Vegas books and square books will not be a good trigger.
You don’t have to have an account at Pinnacle but just have the ability to follow the live line. This is also a good example of why you want to have accounts at multiple sportsbooks. When there is a Pinnacle steam move many of the other online sportsbooks will adjust their line with it almost immediately. But a few books will be late to react and having accounts at multiple books will allow you to shop for the “pre steam” line. It can happen quickly and the window to catch the better number might be relatively short so having your accounts open and ready to place a wager is important. And with the odds on the ML, you will not have to hit 50% to break even.
The ZCode Line Reversal Tool is a great way to follow the Pinnacle line live. Here is an obvious example using the Line Reversal Tool:
You can see the Red Sox money line price changed from -145 (1.69) to -155 (1.65) with a sharp move. This was one of a few sharp moves throughout the day but that was one opportunity to line-shop at other books and look for the original -145 price. Ultimately, the line closed at -170 (1.59) so the savings would make a big difference over time.
Because Pinnacle is a sharp book, there will be many adjustments throughout the day due to sharp money and you will have multiple opportunities to get the sharp side at a cheaper price.
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