With about a month before the annual MLB All-Star Game, the divisional and wild card races are starting to take shape. Here’s what’s in store for the weekend of June 8 -10.
Note that all information is for games played through June 5.
Milwaukee Brewers versus Philadelphia Phillies
The Brewers come in with the best record in the National League, while the Phillies try to keep pace with the Braves and Nationals in the NL East. Milwaukee is +25 on the Power Ranking Indicator and “average up” on the Team Strength Oscillator. This compares to +16 and “ice cold down” for the Phillies. In terms of the pitching match ups, Milwaukee has a large edge on the Pitcher Profit Oscillator in Friday’s game with Jhoulys Chacin versus Vince Velasquez. On the flip side, Saturday’s match up heavily favors the Phillies with Jake Arrieta versus Brent Suter. The Brewers are undecided for Sunday, while Zach Eflin, who is at -262 in terms of profit, takes the ball for the Phillies. Neither team will sweep and with the Phillies at home, it’s a toss up as to who takes the series.
New York Yankees versus New York Mets
In this across the city rivalry, the Yankees appear to have a big advantage, having the second best record in baseball. They are +29 on the Power Ranking Indicator and “burning hot” on the Team Strength Oscillator. The Mets are +16 and “ice cold down” and in fourth in the NL East. The Yankees are the most stable team in the league according to the Team Volatility Oscillator, while the Mets are 10th most unstable team. This bodes well for betting on the Yankees, who are likely to be favorites the entire weekend. On the mound, Masahiro Tanaka goes against Jacob deGrom on Friday. While both have been profitable, Tanaka has a +2028 to +510 advantage. Saturday’s game is one likely to avoid betting on as both Domingo German and Steven Mats are in the red in terms of profit. Although Luis Severino has been excellent this season, he’s been a poor bet at -92,while Jason Vargas is at +1529. The Yankees are just too good and the Mets are scuffling, so the Yankees will win this series.
San Francisco Giants versus Washington Nationals
The Giants are just 2 1/2 games back in the tight NL West, while the Nationals have made a push and are just a game behind the Braves in the NL East. Washington holds a +23 to +19 edge on the Power Ranking Indicator. The Giants are “burning hot” versus “average up”. Neither team is in the top ten or bottom ten on the Team Volatility Oscillator. Friday’s pitching match up features Andrew Suarez versus Stephen Strasburg and neither have been good bets according to the Pitcher Profit Oscillator. Gio Gonzales is a good bet for Washington on Saturday, while Derek Holland at +902 is a much more promising bet than Jeremy Hellickson at -745. Look for the Nationals to have an advantage playing at home and taking two of three this weekend.
Atlanta Braves versus Los Angeles Dodgers
After a rough start, the Dodgers are back to .500 and two games off the pace in the NL West. The Braves are hanging in the NL East, fighting off the Nationals and Phillies. The Braves have a +25 to +15 advantage on the Power Ranking Indicator, however the Dodgers are “burning hot” having won seven of their last ten. The favorite/underdog status should be relatively ignored here, as the Dodgers are the most unstable and Braves third most unstable team in the league. Brandon McCarthy goes for the Braves on Friday versus Walker Buehler for the Dodgers. Edge Braves in the opener. Both Saturday starters Anibal Sanchez and Alex Wood have been terrible bets. On Sunday Julio Teheran has been moderately profitable at +224, while the Dodgers have yet to name their starter. Inexplicably the Dodgers are below .500 at home and I see the Braves edging the Dodgers in a two to one series win.
Cleveland Indians versus Detroit Tigers
The top two teams battle in the AL Central. Cleveland is +20 on the Power Ranking Indicator versus +12 for the Tigers. Cleveland is 7-3 over the last ten, while the Tigers are 6-4. Both teams are “average” on the Team Strength Oscillator and the Tigers rank as the fourth most unstable team in the league. Detroit has the advantage in terms of pitcher profit on Friday and Saturday. Both Michael Fullmer and Mike Fiers are in the green. On the flip side, neither Trevor Bauer of Mike Clevinger have been excellent bets for the Indians. Cleveland’s starter for finale, Corey Kluber, is also in the red at -444, while the Tigers are undecided. Detroit is 20-14 at home and the Indians are just 12-17 on the road. It’s very likely that the Tigers take two of three this weekend.
Chicago White Sox versus Boston Red Sox
In the most lopsided match up this weekend, the Red Sox have the best record in baseball versus the White Sox who are second from the bottom. Chicago is +1 and “dead” while the Red Sox are +28 and “average up”. Furthermore, the Red Sox are third in team stability, while the White Sox are sixth. This means that both are consistently winner as favorites and losing as underdogs. Dylan Covey has a +125 to -354 edge over Chris Sale in terms of profit in Friday’s opener. However it’s difficult to bet against Sale. Chicago is undecided for Saturday and David Price is on the hill for the Red Sox. Big edge on Sunday for the Red Sox with Rick Porcello (+1057) versus Reynaldo Lopez (-366). Boston will win the series and possibly sweep.
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