One of the many great tools on ZCode is the Odds Converter. Using this tool is a fantastic way to find value in a money line and be able to exploit lines that shade to a public-heavy side.
For example, the San Francisco Giants are playing at the Chicago Cubs. Most books have the Cubs a -191 favorite while the Giants are +171 underdogs. The first step we want to do is to convert those odds to break-even percentages:
Using the odds converter, you can see:
*Cubs-191 = 65.63% required break-even %
*Giants +171 = 36.90% required break-even %
Adding these together we get 102.53%. It is over 100% because of the juice from the sportsbook. So now we want to remove the juice and get the no-vig win probability, which we do by dividing the break-even % by the total percentage:
*65.63/102.53 = 64.01%
*36.90/102.53 = 35.99%
Since those new percentages equal 100%, we know the math is correct. And now we go back to the Odds Converter tool and plug in our new no-vig win probability:
Cubs at 64.01% = -178
Giants at 35.99% = +178
As you can see, books have shaded the Cubs line heavily. There are many ways to use this information. If you handicapped the game yourself and thought the Giants had a 40% chance to win, then you found tremendous value. Also, if you wanted to place a wager on the Giants, you would want to look for a book offering the Giants at least at +178. Line shopping reveals 5Dimes currently offers the Giants at +181. With the juice heavily shaded on the Cubs line, there is probably no value to be had at -191 unless new information arises.
Obviously, lines are very fluid and there are many variables that come into play but using the Odds Converter is just another tool at our disposal that can help us avoid public traps and increase profits.
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