Boston Red Sox versus New York Yankees
Looking at match ups in this classic division rivalry, the Red Sox hold a slight advantages in Power Ranking, MLB Strength Oscillator and Power Ranking Indicator. They are sixth in Power Ranking compared to eighth for the Yankees and hold a very small +21 to +20 edge in the Power Ranking Indicator. Neither team rank high in Team Volatility, so they are far from sure bets as favorites or as underdogs.
Pitching match ups:
Friday, September 1: Doug Fister versus Sonny Gray
Fister comes in at 3-7 with a 4.53 ERA but is 3-2 over his last five decisions. Not a particularly strong bet, he comes in at -386 on the Pitcher Profit Oscillator. Gray is 8-8 with a 3.26 ERA overall and 2-3 over the last five. While his overall numbers are better, he’s been even a worse bet at -1252 on the Profit Oscillator. The slight overall edge to the Red Sox and advantage in terms of profit for Fister leans me towards the Red Sox in the series opener.
Saturday, September 2: Drew Pomeranz versus Masahiro Tanaka
The reigning Cy Young Award winner Pomeranz has been excellent lately. He’s 4-0 over the last four and 14-4 with a 3.23 ERA overall. Having said that, he’s -1156 on the Profit Oscillator and although climbing, draws a red flag in terms of betting. Tanaka is worse in raw numbers at 10-10 with a 4.69 ERA. But he’s 2-0 over the last two and has a very impressive +1426 in terms of profit. While the edge seems to go to the Red Sox on paper, I cannot ignore the wide disparity in terms of profit and go with the Yankees in this one.
Sunday, September 3: Chis Sale versus Luis Severino
Sale is having a spectacular season at 15-6 with a 2.77 ERA and 264 strikeouts in 185 1/3 innings. He is just 1-2 over the last three but that’s a blip on the radar. Severino has been very good at 11-6 with a 3.14 ERA and is 6-2 over the last eight. The problem with Severio is that he’s been a very poor bet, at -734 on the Profit Oscillator. Sale has surprisingly only been barely profitable, but the clear pick is for the Red Sox in this one.
Arizona Diamondbacks versus Colorado Rockies
This is a match up of two teams heading in opposite directions. The Diamondbacks are currently second in Power Ranking while the Rockies are ninth. While both teams are negative in terms of the MLB Strength Oscillator, the Diamondbacks are higher and also hold a +27 to +20 advantage in terms of Power Ranking Indicator. Neither team crack the top ten in Team Volatility, making favorite or underdog status less important factors in prediction.
Pitching match ups:
Friday, September 1: Taijuan Walker versus Kyle Freeland
Walker is 7-7 with a 3.55 ERA but is only 1-4 over the last five decisions. Freeland is 11-8 with a 3.81 ERA and 3-1 over the last four decisions. Both have been good bets, but Walker holds a +1539 to +446 advantage in terms of profit. Walker has been on the decline lately, but with the profit advantage and overall team advantage for the Diamondbacks, I expect an Arizona win in this one.
Saturday, September 2: Patrick Corbin versus Jon Gray
Corbin comes in winner off the last four and is 12-11 with a 3.91 ERA overall. He’s been profitable at +507 on the Profit Oscillator. Graw is 3-1 over the last four and has a 4.18 ERA for the season. While pitching well lately, he’s been an overall poor bet at -549 on the Profit Oscillator. This game is screaming “Diamondbacks”, so will go with Arizona in the middle game of the series.
Sunday, September 3: Zack Godley versus Antonio Senzatela
Here’s a match up of two pitchers who are a combined 1-5 over their last six decisions. Overall Senzatela has an advantage in terms of wins and losses, at 10-5 compared to 6-7 for Godley. However, Godley has a better ERA at 3.27 to 4.68 and has an advantage of nearly 900 in terms of profit. I pick the Diamondbacks in this one to complete a weekend sweep over the Rockies.
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