Baseball predictions August 18 – August 20
Toronto Blue Jays versus Chicago Cubs
Taking a glance at the overall trend of the two teams, as of Wednesday, the Cubs have a 10 point advantage in the Power Ranking Indicator at +24 to +14. The Power Rankings show both teams on the decline and the Team Strength Oscillator shows the teams nearly even at -1.27 for the Blue Jays, compared to the Cubs at -1.11. Neither team is in the top ten in Team Volatility, making the favorite/underdog status not much of a factor.
Pitching match ups:
Friday, August 18: J.A. Happ versus Jake Arrieta
Happ enters the games with a record of 6-8 with a 3.63 ERA. He’s been a decent bet recently, as his Profit Oscillator number is on the rise, but he’s still at -179, down over 500 since April. Arrieta is 12-8 with a 3.73 ERA and 4-1 over the last five decisions. He’s been a much more profitable bet at +1098, down 400 since April but recently on the rise. Both pitchers have been effective but go with the most profitable bet, so the Cubs are the choice for game one.
Saturday, August 19: Nick Tepesch versus Jose Quintana
Tepsech is 1-2 with a 5.25 in only three games this season. Although a small sample size, Tepesch comes in at -648 on the Profit Oscillator. While Tepesch hasn’t been a good bet, Quintana has been worse. His overall numbers of 7-10 with a 4.33 ERA are better than Tepesch’s, he’s at -926 on the Profit Oscillator. Go with the Blue Jays in Saturday’s game to avoid a potential sweep.
Sunday, August 20: Marco Estrada versus Kyle Hendricks
Both pitchers have been profitable, with Hendricks holding a +612 to +351 advantage. Another trend is that both pitchers have been declining in terms of profit. Overall, Hendricks is 4-4 with a 3.45 ERA, while Estrada is 5-8 with a 5.09 ERA. The Cubs are higher by 10 in the Power Ranking Indicator and Hendricks has been a more reliable bet overall, so I pick the Cubs to take the series finale.
Arizona Diamondbacks versus Minnesota Twins
These two teams are very evenly matched with the Diamondbacks at +22 on the Power Ranking Indicator and the Twins at +21. Both are on the decline and same holds in terms of Power Rankings. The Diamondbacks are 9th, while the Twins are 13th, both declining. Not surprisingly, both teams are in the red in terms of Team Strength at -9.33 and -2.04, respectively.
Pitching match ups :
Friday, August 18: Zack Godley versus Ervan Santana
Godley had been a hot pitcher lately, going 4-1 over his last five starts and had a Profit Oscillator number of +1110, up over 400 since the beginning of the season. Santana has had a good season, at 12-7 with a 3.28 ERA, but is just 2-3 over the last eight starts. Not surprisingly he hasn’t been a good bet lately and is at -273 in terms of profit. The best bet is the Diamondbacks in the opener.
Saturday, August 19: Zack Greinke versus Dietrich Enns
This is a clear mismatch in favor of the Diamondbacks. Grienke is 14-5 with a 3.01 ERA and has been an phenomenal bet at +2521 on the Profit Oscillator. Enns has only pitched in one game, allowing 2 runs, 5 hits and a home run in 2 1/3 innings. I pick the Diamondbacks decisively in game two.
Sunday, August 20: Anthony Banda versus Bartolo Colon
Both pitchers have very poor overall numbers in terms of wins/losses and ERA. Banda is 1-3 with a 7.32 ERA in four games, while Colon is 4-10 with a 6.70. Colon has pitched better with the Twins, with a 4.21 ERA. The clear advantage is in terms of profit, with Colon coming in at +1427 as opposed to -88 for Banda. I go with the Twins in game three to avoid a sweep
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