An all Texas matchup in what should be a very competitive second round series begins on Monday. The Spurs won the regular season series 3-1 – winning twice at Houston – but no game was decided by more than 6 points and the average margin of victory was 3 points.
James Harden and Kawhi Leonard each headlined the offense for their respective teams and it should be more of the same. The one glaringly obvious takeaway from the regular season meetings was the Spurs ability to limit Houston’s three-point shooting. This will be the key to this series as well.
Houston led the league in three-pointers made per game with 14.4. Against the Spurs, Houston shot 28.6% from three and only averaged 9.6 makes per game. That is roughly 14 points per game that Houston was missing and in a closely contested series those points are the difference between advancing or going home.
From an investment perspective, I think the road team on the money line will have the most value as well as the total staying under. Both teams are more than capable of winning on the road and all four regular season games stayed under the total. Books will adjust but it’s worth starting from a place where you are thinking under.
This should be a very entertaining series and I expect both teams to get at least one road win. Ultimately, I think the Spurs will have the advantage with Gregg Popovich coaching against Mike D’Antoni. Spurs in 7.
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