Today we are featuring Josh, the creator of Soccer TGBB System and e-sports system on DotA 2
Really good interview with detailed predictions about World Cup2014 and tips on how to analyze and handicap football (soccer) games!
1. Hi Josh, where are you from? How did you start your sports investing career?
I’m from Sydney Australia and have been a member of Z Code for about a year now! In this time i’ve learnt so much about what we all do on a daily basis and i’m totally indebted to the people who share their knowledge for free with the rest of the community.
I began wagering sports for fun with friends when we all use to get together for a few drinks and a night of football! Would only be fun bets and i never got into any kind of statistical analysis or tactics, i just watched the game and bet with my gut, Team A is better & they will win. Such a bad mindset to have. After continuous losses when i bet with my friends, i enjoyed predicting games and outcomes always playing fantasy football and checking playing styles and which player should dominate the game.
I decided i wanted to take things more seriously, i’ve always heard of people living off of sports betting but never believed it could possibly be done as i always had a high rate of losses even though i thought i was making the right choices. That was what led me on my mission, i was determined not to be beaten as i’m pretty competitive by nature. I absolutely hate it when i lose. This led me to zcode, and what a find it was. Since then i’ve been in consistent profits and my mindset has completely changed in regards to taking positions on games.
Football is my main passion but i love watching all sports. I got into NFL this season and thought it was great watching the game. My first viewing of a MLB match was last season also.
A few inspirational members that i want to give a shoutout to as i take all the advice you guys give out as gospel in my sports investing journey: Cliff, Pimp, Trey, Prof, Jfen, Mudrac, Dex, Cyril & Valdemar.
2. Please tell us more about e-sports, for example DotA 2 Selections. Do you still follow the professional scene and plan to continue it?
I still follow the pro scene but recently there has been a lot of chopping and changing in team lineups of what i had as solid selections to win 80% or more of the time. This has forced me to take a step back and concentrate more on my work in football which has proven to be quite profitable if not more so than e-sports.
I will continue to provide DotA 2 selections but only when i can see things are stable and there are rarely any surprise results. Two sides that you could put your house on to get a win at any time (Alliance & Na’Vi) are losing frequently too unknown teams or teams who sometimes get knocked out in the 1st round. This makes me completely worried about going any where near sides with my money as it’s not a smart investment to make & is becoming more of a crap shoot even though odds for these so called “Top Sides” go no higher than 1.20 unless they have a match up against each other. Seeing a 1.20 < favourite going down on a regular basis is not something you wanna be throwing your money at. In one game they lose and then the next game against the same side they stomp and win in 15 minutes.
Perhaps the players from these top sides have lost their drive to play the game as it is not like a proper sport where players spend 10+ years doing what they do as a profession.
For now i will concentrate on my football as that is my main passion and it’s what i love watching until i can find a good
3. Tell us more about e-sports and their difference to traditional sports in terms of handicapping games? What bookies offer it? What is the profit potential?
I’m not sure about other games but DotA 2 as an e-sport is in it’s infancy at the moment, big in Asia & Europe (Russia, Ukraine mainly) but not a lot of publicity anywhere else. This can be seen by every tournament having either Chinese finalists, Russian / Ukraine finalists or a mixture of the two. There is no way you would see a pro Australian team at any of the major tournaments doing well!
The difference from traditional sports besides the obvious is that it is mainly tactical based and all about countering what the other side is doing. Rock, Paper, Scissors! There’s also a big emphasis on reflexes, if you’re quicker than your opponent, the majority of times you win!
The average age of e-sports players range from around 16 – 24 where most play for a few years, hope to go pro and then when they realise there’s not enough money to live from it, they go off to one of your usual everyday jobs.
The profit potential for e-sports at the moment is quite small, the limits on these sports are quite minimal. Mostly ranging from $80 – $150. This would also be because the prize and salary for these players is also small. If there were high limits, players could make more money throwing a game and betting on the other side than playing through a whole tournament and winning. Perhaps with more exposure, there will be higher limits and a better potential for profit.
The only book i’ve seen at the moment who offers e-sports wagering is Pinnacle.
4. Your current TGBB system is up to amazing start 15 – 0? Please tell us more about it.
I based this low risk, high hit rate system off of a few that we have here at Z Code (Aragorn / Legolas, Alpha / Delta, Boromir etc) and thought how could i apply these philosophies to a footballing system. Then TGBB was born.
The idea behind the system is to select big European club sides (Manchester City, Bayern Munich, Juventus, Real Madrid etc) with their excellent home records and massive gulf in quality in comparison to the majority of teams in their own domestic leagues to score two or more goals in their home games. Odds on these selections are really variable depending on the fixture and can range anywhere from as low as 1.15 to as high as 2.00+. In the Chelsea vs Manchester United match just past, Chelsea were 1.90 to score Over 1.5 Team Goals and it easily cashed before half time. The home side advantage is clearly present and is a great way for us to make money.
To use Manchester City as an example for TGBB’s profit potential, they have played 11 matches at home this season in the Premier League averaging 3.85 team goals per match. Only once in eleven game have they failed to score twice & if we ran TGBB since the start of the season for just this one side, we would already see a 10 unit profit.
The records for the other teams i’ve selected in my initial roll out of TGBB are all similar. There are 15 other sides that i track in the system and potentially we could have seen a 100+ unit profit only half way into the European season. As i’ve just released the system recently, i will look to further improve it and look towards additional leagues that we could add as there are a few in europe where 1 team dominates every game at home. Adding these smaller teams in their home leagues could further improve profits.
Don’t be scared off of a 7-8 unit outlay on a 1.15 play at times. 90% of the time that selection is going to cash. The thing with football is, If a team is a 1.20 favourite, they usually play the game like a 1.20 favourite and dominate. We may get 1 or 2 losses over an entire season, but with 15 or so teams being tracked we can more than make up the losses and get into comfortable profit.
5. What is the profit potential? Is it your first season with this system?
The potential for TGBB, i believe is quite high. I’ve backtested with my starting sides for the 1st half of this season and last season and there was not a single D bet lost and we only got to a D bet 1 time. We have only just got the Italian & Spanish leagues starting up again after the Christmas break with Germany yet to get back to business and have already reached a 15 – 0 record.
It may be ambitious but i would like to see the system get to 100 units of profit by the World Cup and that is my target, thus giving myself and everyone who has followed a nice bank to take into it. In regards to losses, i would expect to see maybe 1 or 2 but no more than that. That will come down to careful selection of when to start a set and when to play the next tier. We saved an A bet on Atletico Madrid just last week when they hosted Barcelona and the game finished 0 – 0, all of this will help to reach my target profit.
Given that it has had such a good start, i will look to run it from the very beginning of the European seasons in August and hopefully break the profit tally of what will be made this season.
6. Do you plan to expand your system into NHL/MLB/NFL/NBA?
I would love to be able to have such a great money making potential in the US sports but i don’t feel my understanding of the games is at a high enough level to produce any systems for it as of yet & with such great experts here at Z Code already making a huge amount of profit with their own systems that they share, it gives me time to concentrate on TGBB, CSN & E-Sports for now.
I do not rule out venturing into the US sports in the future though as the data provided here is absolutely amazing and i would love to get stuck in using the vast amount of data and tools provided by the team.
7. What are the biggest challenges in handicapping soccer?
The amount of information that needs to be processed to have a high winning percentage is pretty substantial. Knowledge of multiple leagues, their players, team strengths & team weaknesses, manager tactical style, knowing player motivation, fixture list & every little detail plays a part when it comes to football i’ll go over some of the main statistics to be successful in questions 11. For a small side to beat one of the football giants, they need to play the perfect game most times. It’s not like in the NFL & MLB from my understanding where if a starting QB is out the whole offence breakdown or if a starting Pitcher is missing then the teams chances for runs is a lot higher. I may be incorrect on this so no hate if i’m wrong!
8. Your prediction for World Cup 2014 winner and finalists?
This is my prediction on how the World Cup will go!
Group Qualification (Ordered in 1st / 2nd)
A: Brazil, Croatia
B: Spain, Chile
C: Japan, Colombia
D: Italy, Uruguay
E: France, Ecuador
F: Argentina, Bosnia and Herzegovina
G: Germany, Portugal
H: Belgium, Russia
Round of 16
– Brazil v Chile | Brazil
– Japan v Uruguay | Uruguay
– France v Bosnia and Herzegovina | France
– Germany v Russia | Germany
– Spain v Croatia | Spain
– Italy v Colombia | Italy
– Argentina v Ecuador | Argentina
– Belgium v Portugal | Belgium
Quarter-Finals
– Brazil v Uruguay | Brazil
– France v Germany | Germany
– Spain v Italy | Italy
– Argentina v Belgium | Belgium
Semi-Finals
– Brazil v Germany | Germany
– Italy v Belgium | Italy
Final
– Germany v Italy | Germany
All sides in the Quarter-Finals are playing at a really high level. I said Germany but in reality, it could go to any of those 8 sides. Whoever is best on the day of the game. Most of the wagering should be played in the group stages and Round of 16. Quarter-Finals and onwards would be way to tough to take a position on and i would just say it’s a gamble.
9. How popular is soccer in Australia?
It’s ever increasing. The governing body is really trying to push here in Australia with the A-League always getting more recognition (even though it is really quite poor from a viewing spectacle at the moment). We really needed to win the World Cup that went to Qatar, that would have made football in Australia massive and a whole new fan base would have been created. It’s kind of a background sport at the moment with Cricket, AFL, NRL being the main sports here for me.
10. What do you think of a possible line reversal tool for soccer?
It would be amazing to have a line reversal tool available for at least the top 5 European leagues (England, Italy, Spain, Germany, France). I always notice line changes from when odds are released to kick off time and having it all available to see & use just like it is for the US sports would be priceless.
I’m a massive fan of Cliff’s FTP and a loyal follower and perhaps he could use his knowledge to build something for football as well if the LR tool was to become available. Huge possibilities!
11. What parameters are most important when predicting and analysing soccer games?
There are quite a lot of factors for me when i analyse games as i like to go quite in depth in any match that I’m capping. I’ll provide a list of statistics/trends/thoughts that i believe are most important when looking to take a position on any game.
– SPG (Shots Per Game), SOT (Shots on Target), Ratio (SPG/SOT Ratio).
– Home / Away Record & current Form
– Clean Sheets
– Goals Per Game Scored / Conceded
– Fixture List / 5 games to come / last 5 played
– Player morale (Did they just get routed 5-0 in the last game?)
– Key player fatigue (Has said player just played 3 matches in a week and the team runs all their offence through him?)
– Manager’s ability to get players fired up. IE Mourinho is a master of this, getting his players ready for big games and playing at the peak of their abilities.
– Consistent central pairing / central 3 (Defensive setup. A side that uses the same two / three players in the centre back role usually is a lot better defensivley as they have a solid foundation to build off from the back that the team can work around.
– Team’s attacking style vs Opponents defending style (A side that uses a lot of width and moves the ball quickly from side to side is more often than not going to break down a team playing a narrow game leaving a lot of space on the wings. There are times when two teams styles clash and it just plays out as a stalemate, i hate these games and stay away from them when i’m looking to place a wager.)
– Team formations (Always handy to see at kick off and notice any changes during the game)
– What competition is the match being played in
– Teams strengths vs opponents weaknesses (Team A is a tall strong side that are always dangerous at set pieces. Couple this with a high Corners Per Game, Free Kicks per game rating against Team B who are small agile players who will rarely win headers against Team A’s target men. You’ve got yourself a likely chance of team A scoring a goal from a set piece. Obvious stuff but the average punter wouldn’t think of things as simple as this).
– Look at Team A and their record against teams of similar quality that match Team B. For example Team A (Chelsea) against Team B (Norwich). You would look at Chelsea’s history against similar teams in the premier league which would be (West Ham, Cardiff, Sunderland, Crystal Palace etc). You can pull a lot more useful data by adding these sides into your analysis as well.
There is of course a lot more data that you can look at (posession %, pass %, tackles won %) but these are some of the main things i look for during every match.
12. Your tips to the followers.
– Have a solid money management plan
– Paper trade a system until you understand exactly how to place the plays
– When making your own picks, do not listen to what Captain Panelist has to say about the game (he is just being paid to talk dribble for 30 minutes prior to kick off).
– If it is a highly respected player who has left the game recently, listen to his take on things. Usually he is not scripted on what to say and tells it like it is.
– Always bet where the value lies! Example: If your book is offering 1.50 on Unders and 2.00 on Overs but you see there have been 3 or more goals in 60%+ of games between the two sides or in recent matches at first glance…Do some thorough investigation into why the odds have been set like that, you could find overs is in fact the play and you’ve got massive value just waiting to be taken! It may not win, but long term you’re going to profit if you keep taking value plays!
– Treat the experts on Z Code as your sports investing mentors, this is a rare gem and you won’t be able to find anything else like it. Learn as much as you can and share your knowledge with others in the community. We are all a part of this and we want to win together.
Thank you for the interview and cheers to all of us moving forward with our investing in 2014!
Josh
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