Arizona Diamondbacks versus Kansas City Royals
Taking a look at the teams in this inter league match up, playoff bound Arizona Diamondbacks take on the Kansas City Royals, looking to finish at .500. According to the Power Ranking Indicator, the Diamondbacks hold a +22 to +15 advantage. They also hold a +6.62 to -4.31 advantage in the MLB Team Strength Oscillator. Neither teams ranks in the top 10 in Team Volatility, therefore the favorite and underdog status will play a deciding factor in my predictions this week.
Pitching match ups:
Friday, September 29: Taijuan Walker versus Ian Kennedy
Walker comes in at 9-9 with a 3.54 ERA and is 0-2 over his last two decisions. Generally an excellent bet, Walker comes in high on the Pitcher Profit Oscillator at +1611. Kennedy has been moving quickly in the opposite direction, at 4-13 with a 5.50 ERA and 0-7 over the last ten starts. He’s been a terrible bet, at -1098 on the Pitcher Profit Oscillator. The Diamondbacks should easily take the first game.
Saturday, September 30: Patrick Corbin versus Jake Junis
Corbin has mediocre overall numbers at 14-13 with a 4.09 ERA and is 1-2 over the last four starts. He’s been up and down in terms of profit, currently at +554. Junis is also 1-2 over the last four and is 8-3 with a 4.39 ERA for the season. A decent bet overall, Junis is at +236 on the Pitcher Profit Oscillator. The Diamondbacks have the overall edge in team strength and on the mound in this one. Give game two to the Diamondbacks to go up 2-0 in the series.
Sunday, October 1: Zack Godley versus Jason Vargas
Godley is 8-9 with a 3.40 ERA for the season and has allowed only 124 hits in 153 1/3 innings. A good overall bet, Godley is +893 in terms of profit. Vargas is the Royals best overall starter, coming in at 18-10 with a 3.94 ERA. He’s been excellent lately, winning his last four decisions. He’s at +1816 on the Pitcher Profit Oscillator, up nearly 900 since the start of the season. I see the Royals winning the final game to avoid a sweep.
Houston Astros versus Boston Red Sox
In what could be a playoff preview, the Astros and Red Sox come in relatively evenly matched. The Red Sox hold a +29 to +24 edge in the Power Ranking Indicator. The Astros hold a +5.43 to -0.4 advantage in the MLB Team Strength Oscillator. In what could be a deciding factor in picking these games, the Astros are third in Team Volatility. This means they generally win as the favorite and lose as the underdog.
Pitching match ups:
Friday, September 29: Charlie Morton versus Doug Fister
Morton comes in at 13-7 with a 3.63 ERA and is 3-1 in the last four games. He’s struck out 159 and allowed only 121 hits in 141 1/3 innings. Despite the good overall numbers, Morton has been a relatively poor bet, at -115 on the Pitcher Profit Oscillator. Fister enters the game at 5-8 with a 4.87 ERA. Up and down in terms of profit, Fister is a poor bet at -260. The edge goes to the Astros and is my pick for the series opener.
Saturday, September 30: Lance McCullers Jr versus Drew Pomeranz
McCullers Jr has missed significant time due to injury as has allowed five earned runs in 8 2/3 innings since coming off the disabled list. Overall, he’s 7-3 with a 4.01 ERA and is at -230 on the Pitcher Profit Oscillator. Pomeranz has better overall numbers with a record of 16-6 with a 3.38 ERA. However, in terms of a bet, he’s been terrible, at -1085 in terms of profit. The Astros don’t have the edge on paper in this one, but the wide difference in profit leans me towards Houston in game two.
Sunday, October 1: Collin McHugh versus Chris Sale
In the series and season finale, McHugh comes in at 4-2 with a 3.45 ERA. He’s won his last four decisions and has been profitable at +516 on the Pitcher Profit Oscillator. Sale has been excellent this season, with a 17-8 record, 308 strikeouts and a 2.90 ERA. To my surprise, he’s been a very marginally profitable bet, at +8 on the profit oscillator. It’s hard to bet against Sale, so I take the Red Sox in the finale.
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