NFL Playoffs Picks: AFC Championship, New England Patriots at Denver Broncos
I don’t trust Peyton Manning at all right now. He’s old, he forgot how to throw a spiral, he doesn’t like the cold weather, he’s not particularly healthy, and he isn’t winning games by himself anymore. That said, he puts his team in positions to win. He knows when to run the ball and he audibles his team into advantages on every play. Peyton Manning may not be what he once was, but he’s enough for the Denver Broncos to make it to another Super Bowl.
The reason that I don’t think Peyton Manning is the decisive factor in this rivalry game with the New England Patriots and Tom Brady is the Denver Broncos defense. The Broncos are by far the most exciting defense in football. They get after the pass rusher, they have a fast linebacking corps, and the secondary is solid. With New England’s best players only recently “recovered” from their injuries, I think the Denver Broncos will take this one.
Also, without intending any disrespect to the New England Patriots, I’m not sure they’re even that good of a football team. They are well-coached and Tom Brady is really good, but if their two top weapons aren’t 100% healthy this week what else do they really have? They lack receiving depth, the line is inconsistent, the running game might struggle to keep the game balanced, and I think even a depleted Peyton Manning should be able to score enough at home to win this game.
For me, this one comes down to who will generate turnovers, Peyton Manning or the Denver Broncos defense. I think Peyton Manning will protect the ball and the Denver Broncos will get after Tom Brady and win this game. Still, we aren’t about playing hunches here – that’s why we have a perfect NFL Playoffs bracket so far. Let’s look at the numbers, too.
Z-Code gives a 58% chance to cover at +3 to the Denver Broncos. They see five-star value in the underdog money line at home as well. As for the odds of who will win, this is nearly a coin flip at 54% to 46% in favor of the New England Patriots. 82% of the money is on the New England Patriots ML and 75% of the money is on the -3 line for the Pats. This is a Las Vegas trap if I’ve ever seen one.
As such, I’m teasing this with the Arizona Cardinals at +10 push-tie and paying a little extra, and also taking a small wager on +3.5, +3, and Broncos ML. I also just really don’t want to see a team that turns off the other team’s headsets in the final minutes, films plays and practices, deflates footballs, and is just overall so unpleasant to cheer for. We’ve made money on all four teams that are left, and I’m happy to be at this point playing with a whole lot of house money. Let’s finish strong.
Denver Broncos 27 – New England Patriots 24
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