Ra1nL0v3r Soccer World Cup Cash Contest Winner Recap:- 
I had joined Z-Code in May 2014 and almost immediately the competition started in June (12th). So I was still learning and a very, very, newbie amongst some very knowledgeable people.
I immediately thought 2 things. To do well I had first had to be consistent, winning a high percentage of my picks because it was obvious to me that many others would also be consistent. The second was to try to stick with what I knew for sure, not be swayed by any un-informed comments from friends/ associates.
In other words I had to implement a good picking strategy and practice money management techniques as if I was trialling a system, just as I was learning to do on the z-code help pages. 
So the Competition started and the first round featured Mexico v. Cameroon. I selected Mexico ML @ 2.30 (after a false pick highlighted by @Michal), as I knew that Mexico had soundly beaten New Zealand to qualify scoring plenty of goals. 1st pick wins! I am placed 29th Round 2 and Germany play who were my pick to win the tournament. Germany (bomb) ML @2.15 also wins. I am 2-0 and very happy, but still only 15th, so this is going to be very tough indeed.
I realised here that bombs and the nuke were critical to the strategy so I decided to save the rest. Round 3 arrives and South Korea are playing and they have high hopes, but playing against Russia who were not organised, nor confident. Here I selected South Korea win/draw because of the Russian turmoil and the match finished 1-1. S. Korea (x2) @ 2.25 wins. I have 3-0 and I am finally on the leader-board (but only 10th). Wow is this tough.
Round 4 arrives and I select the Italy v Costa Rica match BTTS @ 2.00, which I genuinely thought was quite a safe bet, but Italy failed to find the net losing 0-1 so my first loss and out of the leaderboard straight away. 3-1 and now 17th. Round 5 and Russia are struggling still as I expected, so selection Belgium ML @2.05 which wins but again only 1-0. I continue to research results as I cannot watch every game as some had the luxury of doing. Matches were from 2am Australian time and I still worked a day job. I noticed the competition was tightening up and I thought that the heat was adversely affecting some of the sides scoring ability along with the fact that most coaches were extremely defence minded. I am 4-1 but still only 12th.
All my selections were odds range 1.91-2.30 so I was confident I was doing the right thing, but it didn’t seem enough although I still had 2 bombs and my nuke to help in the final rounds, as I realised most others in front of me had used more of them. Still a bomb or nuke is no good without a win with it. Wow picking 80% and not in the top 10, did I mention this is tough? Round 6 and I searched for a match to buck the close trend. Croatia v. Mexico fit the bill and I chose Over 2.5 goals @1.91 another nice win (1-3) I am now 5-1 but still 12th.
Round 7 finishes the round robin (Group) stage, and I believe I make my first genuine mistake. I select Germany match again feeling very confident, but I did not consider all the facts. Firstly Germany qualify comfortably. Secondly USA are in a great position. A win or draw will guarantee qualification, but so will a small loss. Dumb Ra1nL0v3r, just pick Germany or stay away is the smarter play, but I select Germany winning HT and FT@ 2.50. Germany win the match, but don’t score until the 55th minute (10 minutes too late for me).
Result 1-0 and both Germany and USA qualify… Genuine mistake! Group stage is over and I am 5-2 with the consistency I strived for at the beginning, I was also very happy with my range of odds consistency for MM purposes but I remain 12th for the 3rd week straight. Even tougher than I could have dreamed of and there were some very good members in the lead, with also many outstanding results. Do I need to change things?
My 2nd genuine mistake was that I did, I wanted higher odds as Germany HT/FT was much better odds (R7 @ 2.50), than Germany ML but with higher risk, and I was about to pay for that change as I continued that into the next rounds. 
Round 8 and it’s the knockout stage. Strong teams playing well in the round of 16, I select Costa Rica to defeat Greece, Costa Rica ML @2.50. This match finished 0-0 HT, 1-1FT, 1-1 ET and went to penalties.
I lose my selection dropping to 5-3 and down to 19th on the ladder. Round 9 bring’s back Germany v. Algeria, and I select Germany, (who are heavy favorites), to win both halves @3.00 with a bomb to bridge some of the gap. This match turned into another tough grind, with both sides very careful with their defence. The result surprised many, not only me. HT 0-0, FT 0-0, and in extra time Germany scored (1-0) and then right at the end of extra-time scored again(2-0) only for Algeria to score as well in added time. A 2-1 Extra time win with plenty of panic for Germany.
My bet loses and I am now 5 wins – 4 losses and out to 33rd in the competition. I still have a bomb and my nuke to use and now is the time to use a bomb that detonates. There are three days until the next round starts and I tried to analyse what had changed. Of the 8 knockout games 5 were a draw at full time, and many were also a draw at half time, 2 of them remaining draws after extra time and going on to penalties. Could this be what I hoped for, an edge as teams tightened up? I certainly hoped so. Round 10 was make or break for me and the matches were Germany –France, Brazil-Colombia, Argentina-Belgium and Netherlands- Costa Rica.
My analysis chose Germany, Brazil and Argentina to win, but could I guarantee they win in 90 minutes? They were all also solid favorites so there was no value in the odds either, so I watched the odds best I could and found no edge whatsoever, and passed all three games which the favorites all won by 1 goal in 90 minutes. 
So I was left to my read on Costa Rica being very tight and the Netherlands really being un-impressive in my opinion since their massive 1st round win against Spain (the competitions biggest disappointment). Results were 3-2 Australia, 2-0 Chile, 2-1 Mexico.
So this was the value game and could it be tight? I certainly hoped so and selected Costa Rica- Netherlands HT/FT draw at 7.70 Bomb. The match played exactly as I dreamed, HT0-0, FT0-0, extra time 0-0 and on to penalties. A massive win which due to competition rules was reduced to 5.00 odds maximum, but rocketed me to first place. WOW!
People asked me on the wall if I had backed that as well, but my record betting was very poor so I continued to follow the expert’s tips. Round 11 was the semi-final and it was time for the nuke. I was not impressed by Brazil, though many were saying that FIFA would ensure a win etc. etc. Germany remained my pick to win the Cup so my Nuke went on Germany to qualify for the final @ 1.92.
I still didn’t trust a win in regulation time, but wasn’t I amazed, (like everybody else), when Germany scored 3 goals in as many minutes to put the game out of reach early in the first half. So my bomb and Nuke both exploded and I was now 7 wins- 4 losses and consolidated first place. Round 12 was the final, and I chose to not play games with the other competition contenders. I told everybody who asked on the wall that I chose Germany to win from the beginning, and my selection to end the competition would Germany to win the World Cup.
I set my alarm as all the matches had started at 6am Australian time (or so I thought). My alarm goes off at 5am, I make coffee and put my selection into the competition. I then open up my books and I see that the match had already (just) started. I place my live bet with the TV on and watch the game, cheering on Germany to victory. But of course I am concerned that the tip was late and that I should not have won. But the ever professional Michal was on to me immediately and the selection did not count. I thought I should have come second but with our correspondence Michal assured me that I held on anyway, so I was very lucky to escape the last round with the mighty Z-code World Cup trophy in my possession.
I remember early in the comp thinking ‘wow’ I am equal with Mudrac and he has been picking exact scores. I never really believed I could win and I couldn’t have won without learning so much from the z-code forums, tutorials etc. I NEEDED consistency, a high percentage at good odds, not to push too far for higher odds. My success rate for odds below 2.31 was 7 wins from 8.
My success rate for odds over 2.31 was 1 win from 4. The other successful strategy was to save the bombs/nuke for the final rounds when I needed them, and I sure needed them. High percentage winners (66%) and good money management is what Z-code is all about!
Of course many thanks go to Michal and the z-code team for organising such a riveting event, and of course congratulations to all the great competitors who led the comp with some outstanding selections. Congratulations to the other prize winners and also to the recent Baseball King as well. I am and always will be a Z-coder for life, because you have changed my life.
Thanks so very much everybody, Ra1nL0v3r (Tony)
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